Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,739Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,739Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 84.5% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (second estimate), accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid rebounding activity following the late-2025 government shutdown. Major projections, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2%, Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Goldman Sachs at 2.5%, all anticipate positive full-year growth supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and private investment, despite offsetting pressures from tariffs, reduced immigration, and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions. The next key data point is the Q1 final GDP release on June 25, followed by the Q2 advance estimate in late July.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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