Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$27,739 Vol.
$27,739 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,739Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,739Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 84.2% market-implied probability against negative real GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized expansion in Q1 2026, accelerating from Q4 2025’s 0.5% pace, with support from investment, exports, and consumer spending. Projections from the CBO, Deloitte, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters cluster between 2.2% and 2.5% for the full year, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act’s tax cuts and business investment incentives. A stable unemployment rate near 4.3% and resilient labor market conditions further reinforce positive sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include the Q2 GDP release, June inflation and employment reports, and FOMC communications that could refine rate-path expectations amid tariff and energy-price headwinds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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