Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by Federal Reserve March projections of 2.4% median expansion, aligned with private forecasts from S&P Global (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%), amid resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3% and New York Fed Q1 nowcast at 2.3%. Q4 2025 growth revised lower to 0.5% annualized but remained expansionary, supporting skin-in-the-game optimism despite mild Q1 softening risks. Key challenges include surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potentially eroding consumer spending if sustained above $100/barrel, or policy shocks like tariffs inflating costs and curbing demand, though recession odds hover below 30% per major banks. Watch Q1 advance estimate on April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$19,510 Vol.
$19,510 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$19,510 Vol.
$19,510 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by Federal Reserve March projections of 2.4% median expansion, aligned with private forecasts from S&P Global (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%), amid resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3% and New York Fed Q1 nowcast at 2.3%. Q4 2025 growth revised lower to 0.5% annualized but remained expansionary, supporting skin-in-the-game optimism despite mild Q1 softening risks. Key challenges include surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potentially eroding consumer spending if sustained above $100/barrel, or policy shocks like tariffs inflating costs and curbing demand, though recession odds hover below 30% per major banks. Watch Q1 advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$19,510Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by Federal Reserve March projections of 2.4% median expansion, aligned with private forecasts from S&P Global (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%), amid resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3% and New York Fed Q1 nowcast at 2.3%. Q4 2025 growth revised lower to 0.5% annualized but remained expansionary, supporting skin-in-the-game optimism despite mild Q1 softening risks. Key challenges include surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potentially eroding consumer spending if sustained above $100/barrel, or policy shocks like tariffs inflating costs and curbing demand, though recession odds hover below 30% per major banks. Watch Q1 advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$19,510Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by Federal Reserve March projections of 2.4% median expansion, aligned with private forecasts from S&P Global (2.2%) and Vanguard (2.3%), amid resilient labor markets with unemployment steady at 4.3% and New York Fed Q1 nowcast at 2.3%. Q4 2025 growth revised lower to 0.5% annualized but remained expansionary, supporting skin-in-the-game optimism despite mild Q1 softening risks. Key challenges include surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, potentially eroding consumer spending if sustained above $100/barrel, or policy shocks like tariffs inflating costs and curbing demand, though recession odds hover below 30% per major banks. Watch Q1 advance estimate on April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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