Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the upcoming April 27-28 meeting, with the benchmark steady at 0.75% since March amid escalating Middle East tensions from the protracted Iran conflict. Recent Reuters polls and ex-officials highlight fading April hike prospects—down from 60-70% odds last week—due to war-fueled oil shocks risking economic fallout and yen weakness, keeping real rates deeply negative and financial conditions accommodative. March's hold emphasized uncertain inflation trajectories hovering near the 2% target. A surprise 25 basis point increase remains possible (8.5% odds) if fresh CPI data exceeds forecasts or USD/JPY surges sharply, prompting preemptive normalization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 93%
Aumento di 25 punti base 7%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$704,044 Vol.
$704,044 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
7%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 93%
Aumento di 25 punti base 7%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$704,044 Vol.
$704,044 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
$161,370 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$143,006 Vol.
93%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$148,706 Vol.
7%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$253,533 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the upcoming April 27-28 meeting, with the benchmark steady at 0.75% since March amid escalating Middle East tensions from the protracted Iran conflict. Recent Reuters polls and ex-officials highlight fading April hike prospects—down from 60-70% odds last week—due to war-fueled oil shocks risking economic fallout and yen weakness, keeping real rates deeply negative and financial conditions accommodative. March's hold emphasized uncertain inflation trajectories hovering near the 2% target. A surprise 25 basis point increase remains possible (8.5% odds) if fresh CPI data exceeds forecasts or USD/JPY surges sharply, prompting preemptive normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$704,044Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the upcoming April 27-28 meeting, with the benchmark steady at 0.75% since March amid escalating Middle East tensions from the protracted Iran conflict. Recent Reuters polls and ex-officials highlight fading April hike prospects—down from 60-70% odds last week—due to war-fueled oil shocks risking economic fallout and yen weakness, keeping real rates deeply negative and financial conditions accommodative. March's hold emphasized uncertain inflation trajectories hovering near the 2% target. A surprise 25 basis point increase remains possible (8.5% odds) if fresh CPI data exceeds forecasts or USD/JPY surges sharply, prompting preemptive normalization.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$704,044Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate at the upcoming April 27-28 meeting, with the benchmark steady at 0.75% since March amid escalating Middle East tensions from the protracted Iran conflict. Recent Reuters polls and ex-officials highlight fading April hike prospects—down from 60-70% odds last week—due to war-fueled oil shocks risking economic fallout and yen weakness, keeping real rates deeply negative and financial conditions accommodative. March's hold emphasized uncertain inflation trajectories hovering near the 2% target. A surprise 25 basis point increase remains possible (8.5% odds) if fresh CPI data exceeds forecasts or USD/JPY surges sharply, prompting preemptive normalization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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