Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the June 2026 policy meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target—bolstered by a weak yen pass-through and surging oil costs from the protracted Middle East conflict disrupting Hormuz Strait shipments. The March 19 decision held rates steady at 0.75% amid these risks, but ex-BoJ officials and Reuters polls (60% expecting 1% by end-June) cite rising 10-year JGB yields near 2.4% and 30-year at record 3.74% as pressuring normalization. No-change at 25% accounts for IMF's slashed 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% and stagflation concerns, with the April 25-28 meeting as the key near-term catalyst.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato25 bps increase 71.6%
No change 25%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
Decrease rates 2.5%
$31,204 Vol.
$31,204 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Decrease rates
2%
No change
25%
25 bps increase
66%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 71.6%
No change 25%
50+ bps increase 3.9%
Decrease rates 2.5%
$31,204 Vol.
$31,204 Vol.
16 giu 2026
Decrease rates
$18,554 Vol.
2%
No change
$8,442 Vol.
25%
25 bps increase
$3,334 Vol.
66%
50+ bps increase
$875 Vol.
4%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the June 2026 policy meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target—bolstered by a weak yen pass-through and surging oil costs from the protracted Middle East conflict disrupting Hormuz Strait shipments. The March 19 decision held rates steady at 0.75% amid these risks, but ex-BoJ officials and Reuters polls (60% expecting 1% by end-June) cite rising 10-year JGB yields near 2.4% and 30-year at record 3.74% as pressuring normalization. No-change at 25% accounts for IMF's slashed 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% and stagflation concerns, with the April 25-28 meeting as the key near-term catalyst.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$31,204Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the June 2026 policy meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target—bolstered by a weak yen pass-through and surging oil costs from the protracted Middle East conflict disrupting Hormuz Strait shipments. The March 19 decision held rates steady at 0.75% amid these risks, but ex-BoJ officials and Reuters polls (60% expecting 1% by end-June) cite rising 10-year JGB yields near 2.4% and 30-year at record 3.74% as pressuring normalization. No-change at 25% accounts for IMF's slashed 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% and stagflation concerns, with the April 25-28 meeting as the key near-term catalyst.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$31,204Data di fine
16 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 66.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point Bank of Japan rate hike to 1.00% at the June 2026 policy meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target—bolstered by a weak yen pass-through and surging oil costs from the protracted Middle East conflict disrupting Hormuz Strait shipments. The March 19 decision held rates steady at 0.75% amid these risks, but ex-BoJ officials and Reuters polls (60% expecting 1% by end-June) cite rising 10-year JGB yields near 2.4% and 30-year at record 3.74% as pressuring normalization. No-change at 25% accounts for IMF's slashed 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% and stagflation concerns, with the April 25-28 meeting as the key near-term catalyst.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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