Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, anchored by restrained gray-zone tactics amid the ongoing Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute rather than kinetic escalation. Japan's April 10 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded bilateral ties to "strategic" amid Beijing's warnings over Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, while Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days near the islands in 2025—persisted into 2026 without violence, including a March 31 confrontation with a survey ship. Recent PLA aircraft sightings near Okinawa and joint U.S.-Japan exercises signal posturing, but the U.S.-Japan security treaty's mutual defense commitment, economic interdependence, and focus on Taiwan deter direct conflict, sustaining trader confidence in de-escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$595,215 Vol.
$595,215 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$595,215 Vol.
$595,215 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, anchored by restrained gray-zone tactics amid the ongoing Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute rather than kinetic escalation. Japan's April 10 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded bilateral ties to "strategic" amid Beijing's warnings over Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, while Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days near the islands in 2025—persisted into 2026 without violence, including a March 31 confrontation with a survey ship. Recent PLA aircraft sightings near Okinawa and joint U.S.-Japan exercises signal posturing, but the U.S.-Japan security treaty's mutual defense commitment, economic interdependence, and focus on Taiwan deter direct conflict, sustaining trader confidence in de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$595,215Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, anchored by restrained gray-zone tactics amid the ongoing Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute rather than kinetic escalation. Japan's April 10 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded bilateral ties to "strategic" amid Beijing's warnings over Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, while Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days near the islands in 2025—persisted into 2026 without violence, including a March 31 confrontation with a survey ship. Recent PLA aircraft sightings near Okinawa and joint U.S.-Japan exercises signal posturing, but the U.S.-Japan security treaty's mutual defense commitment, economic interdependence, and focus on Taiwan deter direct conflict, sustaining trader confidence in de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Japan Coast Guard (JCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$595,215Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Japan before 2027, anchored by restrained gray-zone tactics amid the ongoing Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands territorial dispute rather than kinetic escalation. Japan's April 10 Diplomatic Bluebook downgraded bilateral ties to "strategic" amid Beijing's warnings over Tokyo's long-range missile deployments in Kumamoto and Shizuoka, while Chinese coast guard patrols—357 days near the islands in 2025—persisted into 2026 without violence, including a March 31 confrontation with a survey ship. Recent PLA aircraft sightings near Okinawa and joint U.S.-Japan exercises signal posturing, but the U.S.-Japan security treaty's mutual defense commitment, economic interdependence, and focus on Taiwan deter direct conflict, sustaining trader confidence in de-escalation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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