Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$5,706,552 Vol.
$5,706,552 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$5,706,552 Vol.
$5,706,552 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$5,706,552Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$5,706,742Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" at 97% implied probability for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, driven by the U.S. intelligence community's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluding Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers unification without force, alongside recent PLA leadership purges disrupting military readiness amid routine gray-zone tactics like warplane incursions. Ongoing hybrid pressures persist—China dismissed U.S. claims of escalation as distortions on April 15—but no verifiable amphibious buildup, logistics mobilization, or troop concentrations signal an attack in the remaining 75 days, reinforced by Taiwan's asymmetric defenses, U.S. deterrence commitments, and high economic costs. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden crises like territorial disputes or leadership upheavals, though barriers remain formidable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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