Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than escalation to armed conflict. Recent developments, including China's deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal (April 2026 satellite imagery) and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal (lab-confirmed April 13, denied by Beijing), alongside coast guard harassment of Filipino fishing vessels and near-misses like the March 30 warship incident, have heightened friction without crossing into live-fire exchanges. Diplomatic channels remain open via provisional Ayungin arrangements and stalled Code of Conduct talks targeting 2026, while Manila bolsters alliances through joint patrols with the US and Japan, deterring outright military action amid high escalation costs for both sides.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$243,432 Vol.
$243,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$243,432 Vol.
$243,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than escalation to armed conflict. Recent developments, including China's deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal (April 2026 satellite imagery) and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal (lab-confirmed April 13, denied by Beijing), alongside coast guard harassment of Filipino fishing vessels and near-misses like the March 30 warship incident, have heightened friction without crossing into live-fire exchanges. Diplomatic channels remain open via provisional Ayungin arrangements and stalled Code of Conduct talks targeting 2026, while Manila bolsters alliances through joint patrols with the US and Japan, deterring outright military action amid high escalation costs for both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$243,432Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than escalation to armed conflict. Recent developments, including China's deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal (April 2026 satellite imagery) and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal (lab-confirmed April 13, denied by Beijing), alongside coast guard harassment of Filipino fishing vessels and near-misses like the March 30 warship incident, have heightened friction without crossing into live-fire exchanges. Diplomatic channels remain open via provisional Ayungin arrangements and stalled Code of Conduct talks targeting 2026, while Manila bolsters alliances through joint patrols with the US and Japan, deterring outright military action amid high escalation costs for both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$243,432Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027, driven by persistent but restrained grey-zone tactics in the South China Sea rather than escalation to armed conflict. Recent developments, including China's deployment of ships and barriers to restrict access at Scarborough Shoal (April 2026 satellite imagery) and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping near Ayungin Shoal (lab-confirmed April 13, denied by Beijing), alongside coast guard harassment of Filipino fishing vessels and near-misses like the March 30 warship incident, have heightened friction without crossing into live-fire exchanges. Diplomatic channels remain open via provisional Ayungin arrangements and stalled Code of Conduct talks targeting 2026, while Manila bolsters alliances through joint patrols with the US and Japan, deterring outright military action amid high escalation costs for both sides.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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