Traders assign a 95.2% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting the brief window remaining and sustained diplomatic engagement. An imminent Xi-Trump summit in late September 2026, following earlier meetings, underscores mutual interest in managing competition through dialogue on trade, AI governance, and regional stability. Ongoing US commitments elsewhere, combined with routine PLA activities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan that have not drawn direct American intervention, further support this consensus. While grey-zone incidents with US allies continue and military modernization on both sides persists, verifiable developments point to calibrated restraint rather than escalation in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises or shifts after the summit remain the primary variables that could alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Scontro militare tra Stati Uniti e Cina prima del 2027?
Sì
5% probabilità
$207,823 Vol.
$207,823 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$207,823 Vol.
$207,823 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.2% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting the brief window remaining and sustained diplomatic engagement. An imminent Xi-Trump summit in late September 2026, following earlier meetings, underscores mutual interest in managing competition through dialogue on trade, AI governance, and regional stability. Ongoing US commitments elsewhere, combined with routine PLA activities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan that have not drawn direct American intervention, further support this consensus. While grey-zone incidents with US allies continue and military modernization on both sides persists, verifiable developments point to calibrated restraint rather than escalation in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises or shifts after the summit remain the primary variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$207,823Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.2% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting the brief window remaining and sustained diplomatic engagement. An imminent Xi-Trump summit in late September 2026, following earlier meetings, underscores mutual interest in managing competition through dialogue on trade, AI governance, and regional stability. Ongoing US commitments elsewhere, combined with routine PLA activities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan that have not drawn direct American intervention, further support this consensus. While grey-zone incidents with US allies continue and military modernization on both sides persists, verifiable developments point to calibrated restraint rather than escalation in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises or shifts after the summit remain the primary variables that could alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$207,823Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.2% probability that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027, reflecting the brief window remaining and sustained diplomatic engagement. An imminent Xi-Trump summit in late September 2026, following earlier meetings, underscores mutual interest in managing competition through dialogue on trade, AI governance, and regional stability. Ongoing US commitments elsewhere, combined with routine PLA activities in the South China Sea and around Taiwan that have not drawn direct American intervention, further support this consensus. While grey-zone incidents with US allies continue and military modernization on both sides persists, verifiable developments point to calibrated restraint rather than escalation in the near term. Unforeseen miscalculations during exercises or shifts after the summit remain the primary variables that could alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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