**Ongoing bilateral negotiations and an existing trade truce framework strongly support the high implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.** The one-year truce reached in October 2025 (Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement) suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and certain retaliatory measures until November 10, 2026, with China also suspending agricultural tariffs until December 31, 2026. Both sides established a US-China Board of Trade after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit to manage reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements (September 10, 2026) expressing hope for implementation “at an early date.” Preparations for the September 24, 2026, Trump-Xi summit in Washington center on trade stabilization, including agricultural purchase commitments and export control adjustments. The US has calibrated additional Section 301 tariffs (such as the 7.5% overcapacity measure) to remain within the ~20% cumulative ceiling previously signaled as acceptable to Beijing, avoiding major escalation. These verified diplomatic channels, scheduled leadership engagement, and alignment of timelines with the market resolution date underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87.7% Yes price. Further progress could still hinge on summit outcomes or extensions beyond the November truce deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato88% probabilità
$248,780 Vol.
$248,780 Vol.
31 dic 2026
88% probabilità
$248,780 Vol.
$248,780 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing bilateral negotiations and an existing trade truce framework strongly support the high implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.**
The one-year truce reached in October 2025 (Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement) suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and certain retaliatory measures until November 10, 2026, with China also suspending agricultural tariffs until December 31, 2026. Both sides established a US-China Board of Trade after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit to manage reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements (September 10, 2026) expressing hope for implementation “at an early date.”
Preparations for the September 24, 2026, Trump-Xi summit in Washington center on trade stabilization, including agricultural purchase commitments and export control adjustments. The US has calibrated additional Section 301 tariffs (such as the 7.5% overcapacity measure) to remain within the ~20% cumulative ceiling previously signaled as acceptable to Beijing, avoiding major escalation.
These verified diplomatic channels, scheduled leadership engagement, and alignment of timelines with the market resolution date underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87.7% Yes price. Further progress could still hinge on summit outcomes or extensions beyond the November truce deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$248,780Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing bilateral negotiations and an existing trade truce framework strongly support the high implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.**
The one-year truce reached in October 2025 (Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement) suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and certain retaliatory measures until November 10, 2026, with China also suspending agricultural tariffs until December 31, 2026. Both sides established a US-China Board of Trade after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit to manage reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements (September 10, 2026) expressing hope for implementation “at an early date.”
Preparations for the September 24, 2026, Trump-Xi summit in Washington center on trade stabilization, including agricultural purchase commitments and export control adjustments. The US has calibrated additional Section 301 tariffs (such as the 7.5% overcapacity measure) to remain within the ~20% cumulative ceiling previously signaled as acceptable to Beijing, avoiding major escalation.
These verified diplomatic channels, scheduled leadership engagement, and alignment of timelines with the market resolution date underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87.7% Yes price. Further progress could still hinge on summit outcomes or extensions beyond the November truce deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$248,780Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing bilateral negotiations and an existing trade truce framework strongly support the high implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.** The one-year truce reached in October 2025 (Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement) suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and certain retaliatory measures until November 10, 2026, with China also suspending agricultural tariffs until December 31, 2026. Both sides established a US-China Board of Trade after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit to manage reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods per side, with recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements (September 10, 2026) expressing hope for implementation “at an early date.” Preparations for the September 24, 2026, Trump-Xi summit in Washington center on trade stabilization, including agricultural purchase commitments and export control adjustments. The US has calibrated additional Section 301 tariffs (such as the 7.5% overcapacity measure) to remain within the ~20% cumulative ceiling previously signaled as acceptable to Beijing, avoiding major escalation. These verified diplomatic channels, scheduled leadership engagement, and alignment of timelines with the market resolution date underpin trader consensus reflected in the 87.7% Yes price. Further progress could still hinge on summit outcomes or extensions beyond the November truce deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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