Polymarket traders assign a 34.5% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—the narrow leader—amid closely contested low-growth outcomes (0-1% at 26%, 1-2% at 22%), pricing in heightened recession risks from recent IMF and OECD forecast downgrades to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, the sharpest G7 cuts due to the Iran conflict's energy price surge and UK vulnerability. February 2026 monthly GDP expanded 0.5% month-on-month, beating estimates and lifting three-month growth to 0.5%, yet persistent inflation forecasts (3.2-4%) and Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% temper optimism versus BoE's February projection of 1.9% four-quarter growth by forecast end. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation, Q1 GDP release May 14, and May BoE policy signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato<0 31%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 feb 2027
<0
31%
0-1%
29%
1-2%
22%
2-3%
8%
3-4%
9%
4-5%
13%
5%+
6%
<0 31%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 feb 2027
<0
$334 Vol.
31%
0-1%
$309 Vol.
29%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
22%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
8%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
9%
4-5%
$411 Vol.
13%
5%+
$252 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 34.5% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—the narrow leader—amid closely contested low-growth outcomes (0-1% at 26%, 1-2% at 22%), pricing in heightened recession risks from recent IMF and OECD forecast downgrades to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, the sharpest G7 cuts due to the Iran conflict's energy price surge and UK vulnerability. February 2026 monthly GDP expanded 0.5% month-on-month, beating estimates and lifting three-month growth to 0.5%, yet persistent inflation forecasts (3.2-4%) and Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% temper optimism versus BoE's February projection of 1.9% four-quarter growth by forecast end. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation, Q1 GDP release May 14, and May BoE policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,964Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 34.5% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—the narrow leader—amid closely contested low-growth outcomes (0-1% at 26%, 1-2% at 22%), pricing in heightened recession risks from recent IMF and OECD forecast downgrades to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, the sharpest G7 cuts due to the Iran conflict's energy price surge and UK vulnerability. February 2026 monthly GDP expanded 0.5% month-on-month, beating estimates and lifting three-month growth to 0.5%, yet persistent inflation forecasts (3.2-4%) and Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% temper optimism versus BoE's February projection of 1.9% four-quarter growth by forecast end. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation, Q1 GDP release May 14, and May BoE policy signals.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,964Data di fine
12 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 34.5% implied probability to UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026—the narrow leader—amid closely contested low-growth outcomes (0-1% at 26%, 1-2% at 22%), pricing in heightened recession risks from recent IMF and OECD forecast downgrades to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, the sharpest G7 cuts due to the Iran conflict's energy price surge and UK vulnerability. February 2026 monthly GDP expanded 0.5% month-on-month, beating estimates and lifting three-month growth to 0.5%, yet persistent inflation forecasts (3.2-4%) and Bank of England rate hold at 3.75% temper optimism versus BoE's February projection of 1.9% four-quarter growth by forecast end. Key swing factors include geopolitical de-escalation, Q1 GDP release May 14, and May BoE policy signals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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