Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.0-0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.5-1.0% <1%
1.0-1.5% <1%
$6,917 Vol.
$6,917 Vol.
30 apr 2026
<0.0%
No
0.0-0.5%
Yes
0.5-1.0%
No
1.0-1.5%
No
1.5-2.0%
No
2.0-2.5%
No
>2.5%
No
0.0-0.5% 100.0%
<0.0% <1%
0.5-1.0% <1%
1.0-1.5% <1%
$6,917 Vol.
$6,917 Vol.
30 apr 2026
<0.0%
$877 Vol.
No
0.0-0.5%
$1,162 Vol.
Yes
0.5-1.0%
$997 Vol.
No
1.0-1.5%
$1,235 Vol.
No
1.5-2.0%
$1,320 Vol.
No
2.0-2.5%
$641 Vol.
No
>2.5%
$684 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$6,917Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,917Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.5% range at 100% implied probability, driven by INEGI's preliminary April 30 release showing a 0.1% year-over-year expansion amid a 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction—far below the 0.8% YoY consensus forecast. Weak January private consumption and investment declines, coupled with February's 0.3% annual IGAE drop, reflect cooling domestic demand, manufacturing softness, and U.S. trade policy uncertainties constraining nearshoring momentum after 2025's meager 0.8% full-year growth. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in INEGI's final Q2 data or stronger-than-expected services rebound, though fiscal constraints and Banxico's cautious 1.6% 2026 forecast limit upside risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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