Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45% for 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting consensus around 0.8% amid weak early-year indicators. January fixed investment contracted 2.2% year-over-year, led by an 8.0% plunge in construction, while March economic activity rose just 0.5%, signaling structural momentum loss from 2025's near-stagnation despite Q4's 1.2% rebound. Elevated social spending, manufacturing job losses, and rising inflation to 4.59% weigh on domestic demand, contrasting optimistic full-year forecasts like IMF's 1.6% and SHCP's 1.8-2.8%. Key differentiator: INEGI's timely Q1 estimate on April 30 could swing outcomes based on consumption resilience or export strength.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 7.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
<0.0%
7%
0.0-0.5%
15%
0.5-1.0%
51%
1.0-1.5%
37%
1.5-2.0%
1%
2.0-2.5%
9%
>2.5%
4%
0.5-1.0% 58%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 7.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 apr 2026
<0.0%
$431 Vol.
7%
0.0-0.5%
$348 Vol.
15%
0.5-1.0%
$567 Vol.
51%
1.0-1.5%
$706 Vol.
37%
1.5-2.0%
$408 Vol.
1%
2.0-2.5%
$139 Vol.
9%
>2.5%
$147 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45% for 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting consensus around 0.8% amid weak early-year indicators. January fixed investment contracted 2.2% year-over-year, led by an 8.0% plunge in construction, while March economic activity rose just 0.5%, signaling structural momentum loss from 2025's near-stagnation despite Q4's 1.2% rebound. Elevated social spending, manufacturing job losses, and rising inflation to 4.59% weigh on domestic demand, contrasting optimistic full-year forecasts like IMF's 1.6% and SHCP's 1.8-2.8%. Key differentiator: INEGI's timely Q1 estimate on April 30 could swing outcomes based on consumption resilience or export strength.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$2,745Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45% for 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting consensus around 0.8% amid weak early-year indicators. January fixed investment contracted 2.2% year-over-year, led by an 8.0% plunge in construction, while March economic activity rose just 0.5%, signaling structural momentum loss from 2025's near-stagnation despite Q4's 1.2% rebound. Elevated social spending, manufacturing job losses, and rising inflation to 4.59% weigh on domestic demand, contrasting optimistic full-year forecasts like IMF's 1.6% and SHCP's 1.8-2.8%. Key differentiator: INEGI's timely Q1 estimate on April 30 could swing outcomes based on consumption resilience or export strength.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,745Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a subdued Q1 2026 Mexico GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 45% for 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting consensus around 0.8% amid weak early-year indicators. January fixed investment contracted 2.2% year-over-year, led by an 8.0% plunge in construction, while March economic activity rose just 0.5%, signaling structural momentum loss from 2025's near-stagnation despite Q4's 1.2% rebound. Elevated social spending, manufacturing job losses, and rising inflation to 4.59% weigh on domestic demand, contrasting optimistic full-year forecasts like IMF's 1.6% and SHCP's 1.8-2.8%. Key differentiator: INEGI's timely Q1 estimate on April 30 could swing outcomes based on consumption resilience or export strength.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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