Polymarket traders price a 56% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 2.5% or higher, driven by surging March exports up 48.3% year-on-year—exceeding consensus—and manufacturing PMI at 52.6, the strongest in over four years, fueled by semiconductor demand from firms like Samsung and SK Hynix. This signals a robust rebound from Q4 2025's -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction and February's 5.4% industrial output surge, front-loading growth despite full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0% from the Bank of Korea and IMF. The closely contested 40% odds on 2.0–2.4% reflect Bank of Korea's April 10 rate hold at 2.50% amid softer annual projections; advance GDP estimate due late April could catalyze shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSouth Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.5%+ 56%
2.0–2.4% 42%
1.0–1.4% 2.1%
0.5–0.9% 1.9%
$18,508 Vol.
$18,508 Vol.
23 apr 2026
<0%
1%
0.0–0.4%
1%
0.5–0.9%
2%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
1%
2.0–2.4%
42%
2.5%+
56%
2.5%+ 56%
2.0–2.4% 42%
1.0–1.4% 2.1%
0.5–0.9% 1.9%
$18,508 Vol.
$18,508 Vol.
23 apr 2026
<0%
$1,945 Vol.
1%
0.0–0.4%
$6,788 Vol.
1%
0.5–0.9%
$541 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.4%
$755 Vol.
2%
1.5–1.9%
$1,051 Vol.
1%
2.0–2.4%
$662 Vol.
42%
2.5%+
$6,764 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price a 56% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 2.5% or higher, driven by surging March exports up 48.3% year-on-year—exceeding consensus—and manufacturing PMI at 52.6, the strongest in over four years, fueled by semiconductor demand from firms like Samsung and SK Hynix. This signals a robust rebound from Q4 2025's -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction and February's 5.4% industrial output surge, front-loading growth despite full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0% from the Bank of Korea and IMF. The closely contested 40% odds on 2.0–2.4% reflect Bank of Korea's April 10 rate hold at 2.50% amid softer annual projections; advance GDP estimate due late April could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$18,508Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Polymarket traders price a 56% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 2.5% or higher, driven by surging March exports up 48.3% year-on-year—exceeding consensus—and manufacturing PMI at 52.6, the strongest in over four years, fueled by semiconductor demand from firms like Samsung and SK Hynix. This signals a robust rebound from Q4 2025's -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction and February's 5.4% industrial output surge, front-loading growth despite full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0% from the Bank of Korea and IMF. The closely contested 40% odds on 2.0–2.4% reflect Bank of Korea's April 10 rate hold at 2.50% amid softer annual projections; advance GDP estimate due late April could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$18,508Data di fine
23 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 56% implied probability for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth at 2.5% or higher, driven by surging March exports up 48.3% year-on-year—exceeding consensus—and manufacturing PMI at 52.6, the strongest in over four years, fueled by semiconductor demand from firms like Samsung and SK Hynix. This signals a robust rebound from Q4 2025's -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction and February's 5.4% industrial output surge, front-loading growth despite full-year 2026 forecasts near 2.0% from the Bank of Korea and IMF. The closely contested 40% odds on 2.0–2.4% reflect Bank of Korea's April 10 rate hold at 2.50% amid softer annual projections; advance GDP estimate due late April could catalyze shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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