U.S. banking sector stability remains anchored by two small-bank resolutions so far in 2026, with Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust closed in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia shuttered in May, each under $300 million in assets and resolved through routine FDIC processes. These failures stemmed primarily from concentrated commercial-and-industrial credit losses and commercial real estate exposures that impaired capital ratios, rather than broad liquidity or deposit-run pressures. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review highlights ongoing funding and interest-rate risks carried over from 2025, yet recent data show lending standards easing and net charge-offs trending below prior estimates as rate volatility moderates. With only three weeks remaining until June 30, the absence of fresh regulatory warnings or large-scale CRE distress signals suggests limited near-term catalysts beyond routine supervisory reviews of smaller institutions holding elevated CRE concentrations relative to equity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$527,238 Vol.
30 giu 2026
BMO
2%
US Bank
2%
Scotiabank
1%
Lloyds
1%
Truist
1%
Bank of America
1%
BNP Paribas
1%
Deutsche Bank
1%
Morgan Stanley
1%
RBC
1%
BNY
1%
Wells Fargo
1%
JPMorgan Chase
1%
HSBC
1%
UBS
1%
Citigroup
1%
KeyBank
1%
Goldman Sachs
1%
Santander
<1%
$527,238 Vol.
BMO
$1,333 Vol.
2%
US Bank
$1,244 Vol.
2%
Scotiabank
$48,100 Vol.
1%
Lloyds
$675 Vol.
1%
Truist
$223 Vol.
1%
Bank of America
$770 Vol.
1%
BNP Paribas
$24,135 Vol.
1%
Deutsche Bank
$169,274 Vol.
1%
Morgan Stanley
$607 Vol.
1%
RBC
$461 Vol.
1%
BNY
$462 Vol.
1%
Wells Fargo
$1,061 Vol.
1%
JPMorgan Chase
$149,919 Vol.
1%
HSBC
$41,341 Vol.
1%
UBS
$38,652 Vol.
1%
Citigroup
$12,516 Vol.
1%
KeyBank
$863 Vol.
1%
Goldman Sachs
$34,940 Vol.
1%
Santander
$662 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. banking sector stability remains anchored by two small-bank resolutions so far in 2026, with Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust closed in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia shuttered in May, each under $300 million in assets and resolved through routine FDIC processes. These failures stemmed primarily from concentrated commercial-and-industrial credit losses and commercial real estate exposures that impaired capital ratios, rather than broad liquidity or deposit-run pressures. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review highlights ongoing funding and interest-rate risks carried over from 2025, yet recent data show lending standards easing and net charge-offs trending below prior estimates as rate volatility moderates. With only three weeks remaining until June 30, the absence of fresh regulatory warnings or large-scale CRE distress signals suggests limited near-term catalysts beyond routine supervisory reviews of smaller institutions holding elevated CRE concentrations relative to equity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Volume
$527,238Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.U.S. banking sector stability remains anchored by two small-bank resolutions so far in 2026, with Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust closed in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia shuttered in May, each under $300 million in assets and resolved through routine FDIC processes. These failures stemmed primarily from concentrated commercial-and-industrial credit losses and commercial real estate exposures that impaired capital ratios, rather than broad liquidity or deposit-run pressures. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review highlights ongoing funding and interest-rate risks carried over from 2025, yet recent data show lending standards easing and net charge-offs trending below prior estimates as rate volatility moderates. With only three weeks remaining until June 30, the absence of fresh regulatory warnings or large-scale CRE distress signals suggests limited near-term catalysts beyond routine supervisory reviews of smaller institutions holding elevated CRE concentrations relative to equity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$527,238Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. banking sector stability remains anchored by two small-bank resolutions so far in 2026, with Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust closed in January and Community Bank and Trust-West Georgia shuttered in May, each under $300 million in assets and resolved through routine FDIC processes. These failures stemmed primarily from concentrated commercial-and-industrial credit losses and commercial real estate exposures that impaired capital ratios, rather than broad liquidity or deposit-run pressures. The FDIC’s 2026 Risk Review highlights ongoing funding and interest-rate risks carried over from 2025, yet recent data show lending standards easing and net charge-offs trending below prior estimates as rate volatility moderates. With only three weeks remaining until June 30, the absence of fresh regulatory warnings or large-scale CRE distress signals suggests limited near-term catalysts beyond routine supervisory reviews of smaller institutions holding elevated CRE concentrations relative to equity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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