**Recent Statistics Canada estimates released March 18 show Canada's population declined 0.2% to 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026—the first drop since Confederation—driven by a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) caps limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000 for 2026, down 43% from prior peaks.** This follows the November 2025 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while curtailing temporary worker and student visas to ease housing pressures. Negative natural growth (more deaths than births) compounded the Q4 2025 shrinkage. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat overall growth for 2026, but traders price a 56.5% "Down" consensus reflecting policy impacts, with next quarterly data due June potentially shifting odds amid ongoing emigration trends.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Statistics Canada estimates released March 18 show Canada's population declined 0.2% to 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026—the first drop since Confederation—driven by a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) caps limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000 for 2026, down 43% from prior peaks.** This follows the November 2025 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while curtailing temporary worker and student visas to ease housing pressures. Negative natural growth (more deaths than births) compounded the Q4 2025 shrinkage. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat overall growth for 2026, but traders price a 56.5% "Down" consensus reflecting policy impacts, with next quarterly data due June potentially shifting odds amid ongoing emigration trends.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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