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Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Market icon

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

53% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO

Up

53% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent Statistics Canada estimates released March 18 show Canada's population declined 0.2% to 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026—the first drop since Confederation—driven by a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) caps limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000 for 2026, down 43% from prior peaks.** This follows the November 2025 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while curtailing temporary worker and student visas to ease housing pressures. Negative natural growth (more deaths than births) compounded the Q4 2025 shrinkage. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat overall growth for 2026, but traders price a 56.5% "Down" consensus reflecting policy impacts, with next quarterly data due June potentially shifting odds amid ongoing emigration trends.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,413
Data di fine
30 apr 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent Statistics Canada estimates released March 18 show Canada's population declined 0.2% to 41,472,081 as of January 1, 2026—the first drop since Confederation—driven by a 171,296 plunge in non-permanent residents amid federal Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) caps limiting new temporary arrivals to 385,000 for 2026, down 43% from prior peaks.** This follows the November 2025 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while curtailing temporary worker and student visas to ease housing pressures. Negative natural growth (more deaths than births) compounded the Q4 2025 shrinkage. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections from late February anticipate flat overall growth for 2026, but traders price a 56.5% "Down" consensus reflecting policy impacts, with next quarterly data due June potentially shifting odds amid ongoing emigration trends.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,413
Data di fine
30 apr 2027
Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Domande frequenti

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" è un mercato predittivo giornaliero su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni su se il prezzo di Canada's population Up or Down this year? finirà più alto ("Su") o più basso ("Giù") rispetto al suo prezzo di apertura nella finestra giornaliero specificata nel titolo. La probabilità attuale del mercato è 56% per "Down". Un prezzo di 56% significa che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 56% a quell’esito. I prezzi si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader reagiscono ai movimenti di prezzo live di Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Le azioni nell’esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" è un mercato attivo a breve termine su Polymarket. Il volume di trading può accumularsi rapidamente man mano che la finestra giornaliero progredisce — entra presto per contribuire a stabilire le quote prima che questa finestra si chiuda.

Per fare trading su "Canada's population Up or Down this year?", decidi se credi che il prezzo di Canada's population Up or Down this year? a mezzogiorno ET il April 29 sarà più alto ("Su") o più basso ("Giù") rispetto al prezzo di Canada's population Up or Down this year? a mezzogiorno ET il January 27. Compra "Su" se pensi che il prezzo salirà da un giorno all’altro, o "Giù" se pensi che scenderà. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se l’esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione, ogni azione paga $1,00. Se errato, le azioni valgono $0.

La probabilità attuale per "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" è 56% per "Down", il che significa che la comunità Polymarket assegna attualmente una probabilità di 56% che il prezzo di Canada's population Up or Down this year? finisca down in questa finestra giornaliero. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader reagiscono ai dati di prezzo live di Canada's population Up or Down this year?. In un’intera giornata, le quote riflettono il sentimento in evoluzione man mano che l’azione di prezzo della giornata si sviluppa. Controlla frequentemente o fai trading ora prima che la finestra si chiuda.

Il mercato "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" si risolve in base a un confronto del prezzo di Canada's population Up or Down this year? a mezzogiorno ET il April 29 rispetto a mezzogiorno ET il January 27, usando i prezzi di chiusura della candela di 1 minuto Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT. Se il prezzo a mezzogiorno del April 29 è più alto, l’esito è "Su"; se più basso, "Giù"; se uguale, il mercato si risolve 50-50. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione e la fonte dati nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.