Recent immigration policy shifts, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan that cut temporary resident targets and encouraged net outflows of non-permanent residents, have driven Canada's population to contract in late 2025 and project flat or slightly negative growth through 2026, according to Statistics Canada and Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates. Permanent resident admissions remain near 380,000 annually, but these inflows are offset by reduced student and worker entries plus outflows, alongside low natural increase from births and deaths. The narrow trader edge for a yearly decline reflects this balance, with uncertainty around data revisions, permit extensions, or any mid-year policy adjustments that could restore modest net inflows before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent immigration policy shifts, including the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan that cut temporary resident targets and encouraged net outflows of non-permanent residents, have driven Canada's population to contract in late 2025 and project flat or slightly negative growth through 2026, according to Statistics Canada and Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates. Permanent resident admissions remain near 380,000 annually, but these inflows are offset by reduced student and worker entries plus outflows, alongside low natural increase from births and deaths. The narrow trader edge for a yearly decline reflects this balance, with uncertainty around data revisions, permit extensions, or any mid-year policy adjustments that could restore modest net inflows before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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