Canada’s population has contracted for three consecutive quarters through April 2026, with Statistics Canada recording a 55,000 decline (-0.1%) in Q1 alone, driven by net outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding 117,000. The federal government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually while cutting temporary resident arrivals to 385,000 in 2026, down sharply from prior years, to reduce the NPR share below 5% of the population by end-2027. Lower permanent inflows, reduced study and work permit targets, and negative natural increase have reinforced quarterly declines, with Parliamentary Budget Office projections indicating flat or negative annual growth for 2026 under current policy settings. These official targets and observed outflows underpin trader consensus favoring a year-over-year population drop.