Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 97.4% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, reflecting the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation since 2014, fortified with heavy defenses, troops, and the Black Sea Fleet base. No verifiable Ukrainian ground advances into Crimea have occurred in the past 30 days, with recent activity limited to drone and missile strikes on oil depots and logistics like the Kerch Bridge ferries (April 11), degrading Russian sustainment without territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reported regaining 480 sq km in eastern and southeastern sectors since late January, but Russian offensives continue near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv, diverting resources. With 76 days remaining, formidable barriers—manpower shortages, supply lines, and escalation risks—dominate assessments, though a sudden Western surge in long-range weapons or Russian withdrawal could shift dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$61,028 Vol.
$61,028 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$61,028 Vol.
$61,028 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 97.4% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, reflecting the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation since 2014, fortified with heavy defenses, troops, and the Black Sea Fleet base. No verifiable Ukrainian ground advances into Crimea have occurred in the past 30 days, with recent activity limited to drone and missile strikes on oil depots and logistics like the Kerch Bridge ferries (April 11), degrading Russian sustainment without territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reported regaining 480 sq km in eastern and southeastern sectors since late January, but Russian offensives continue near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv, diverting resources. With 76 days remaining, formidable barriers—manpower shortages, supply lines, and escalation risks—dominate assessments, though a sudden Western surge in long-range weapons or Russian withdrawal could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$61,028Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 97.4% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, reflecting the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation since 2014, fortified with heavy defenses, troops, and the Black Sea Fleet base. No verifiable Ukrainian ground advances into Crimea have occurred in the past 30 days, with recent activity limited to drone and missile strikes on oil depots and logistics like the Kerch Bridge ferries (April 11), degrading Russian sustainment without territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reported regaining 480 sq km in eastern and southeastern sectors since late January, but Russian offensives continue near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv, diverting resources. With 76 days remaining, formidable barriers—manpower shortages, supply lines, and escalation risks—dominate assessments, though a sudden Western surge in long-range weapons or Russian withdrawal could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$61,028Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 97.4% for Ukraine recapturing Crimean territory by June 30, reflecting the peninsula's entrenched Russian occupation since 2014, fortified with heavy defenses, troops, and the Black Sea Fleet base. No verifiable Ukrainian ground advances into Crimea have occurred in the past 30 days, with recent activity limited to drone and missile strikes on oil depots and logistics like the Kerch Bridge ferries (April 11), degrading Russian sustainment without territorial gains. Ukrainian forces reported regaining 480 sq km in eastern and southeastern sectors since late January, but Russian offensives continue near Pokrovsk and Kharkiv, diverting resources. With 76 days remaining, formidable barriers—manpower shortages, supply lines, and escalation risks—dominate assessments, though a sudden Western surge in long-range weapons or Russian withdrawal could shift dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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