Recent mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire declared by Putin on April 11 underscore deep mistrust fueling the closely contested 53% yes probability for a Russia-Ukraine halt in hostilities by end-2027. Despite reciprocal Ukrainian agreement, prisoner swaps of 175 each, and Zelenskyy's standing offers for reciprocal truces contingent on Russian attack halts, broader peace talks remain stalled post-February's inconclusive US-mediated Geneva meetings, paused partly by Middle East distractions. Slowed Russian advances per Institute for the Study of War, sanctions strain, and war fatigue signal potential de-escalation via US midterm-driven aid shifts or security guarantees, but territorial disputes, escalation risks, or prolonged stalemate could extend fighting indefinitely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
$21,486 Vol.
$21,486 Vol.
31 dic 2027
$21,486 Vol.
$21,486 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire declared by Putin on April 11 underscore deep mistrust fueling the closely contested 53% yes probability for a Russia-Ukraine halt in hostilities by end-2027. Despite reciprocal Ukrainian agreement, prisoner swaps of 175 each, and Zelenskyy's standing offers for reciprocal truces contingent on Russian attack halts, broader peace talks remain stalled post-February's inconclusive US-mediated Geneva meetings, paused partly by Middle East distractions. Slowed Russian advances per Institute for the Study of War, sanctions strain, and war fatigue signal potential de-escalation via US midterm-driven aid shifts or security guarantees, but territorial disputes, escalation risks, or prolonged stalemate could extend fighting indefinitely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$21,486Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire declared by Putin on April 11 underscore deep mistrust fueling the closely contested 53% yes probability for a Russia-Ukraine halt in hostilities by end-2027. Despite reciprocal Ukrainian agreement, prisoner swaps of 175 each, and Zelenskyy's standing offers for reciprocal truces contingent on Russian attack halts, broader peace talks remain stalled post-February's inconclusive US-mediated Geneva meetings, paused partly by Middle East distractions. Slowed Russian advances per Institute for the Study of War, sanctions strain, and war fatigue signal potential de-escalation via US midterm-driven aid shifts or security guarantees, but territorial disputes, escalation risks, or prolonged stalemate could extend fighting indefinitely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$21,486Data di fine
31 dic 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire declared by Putin on April 11 underscore deep mistrust fueling the closely contested 53% yes probability for a Russia-Ukraine halt in hostilities by end-2027. Despite reciprocal Ukrainian agreement, prisoner swaps of 175 each, and Zelenskyy's standing offers for reciprocal truces contingent on Russian attack halts, broader peace talks remain stalled post-February's inconclusive US-mediated Geneva meetings, paused partly by Middle East distractions. Slowed Russian advances per Institute for the Study of War, sanctions strain, and war fatigue signal potential de-escalation via US midterm-driven aid shifts or security guarantees, but territorial disputes, escalation risks, or prolonged stalemate could extend fighting indefinitely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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