Russia and Ukraine's mutual accusations of violating a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 underscore the absence of sustained de-escalation, with recent Russian drone and missile barrages killing at least 15 amid ongoing frontline clashes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Broader ceasefire negotiations remain stalled following February's Geneva talks involving the US, hampered by disagreements over territorial control, sanctions, and security guarantees, as confirmed by official statements from Kyiv and Moscow. Prisoner swaps and limited truces like Easter's have not bridged core divides, reflecting trader consensus at 90.5% "No" probability due to entrenched military postures and lack of diplomatic momentum; a major breakthrough, such as multilateral summit progress or battlefield stalemate, would be needed to shift odds before June 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro il 30 giugno 2026?
Cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro il 30 giugno 2026?
Sì
$6,020,693 Vol.
$6,020,693 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$6,020,693 Vol.
$6,020,693 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia and Ukraine's mutual accusations of violating a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 underscore the absence of sustained de-escalation, with recent Russian drone and missile barrages killing at least 15 amid ongoing frontline clashes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Broader ceasefire negotiations remain stalled following February's Geneva talks involving the US, hampered by disagreements over territorial control, sanctions, and security guarantees, as confirmed by official statements from Kyiv and Moscow. Prisoner swaps and limited truces like Easter's have not bridged core divides, reflecting trader consensus at 90.5% "No" probability due to entrenched military postures and lack of diplomatic momentum; a major breakthrough, such as multilateral summit progress or battlefield stalemate, would be needed to shift odds before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volume
$6,020,693Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Russia and Ukraine's mutual accusations of violating a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 underscore the absence of sustained de-escalation, with recent Russian drone and missile barrages killing at least 15 amid ongoing frontline clashes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Broader ceasefire negotiations remain stalled following February's Geneva talks involving the US, hampered by disagreements over territorial control, sanctions, and security guarantees, as confirmed by official statements from Kyiv and Moscow. Prisoner swaps and limited truces like Easter's have not bridged core divides, reflecting trader consensus at 90.5% "No" probability due to entrenched military postures and lack of diplomatic momentum; a major breakthrough, such as multilateral summit progress or battlefield stalemate, would be needed to shift odds before June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$6,020,693Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine's mutual accusations of violating a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12 underscore the absence of sustained de-escalation, with recent Russian drone and missile barrages killing at least 15 amid ongoing frontline clashes in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Broader ceasefire negotiations remain stalled following February's Geneva talks involving the US, hampered by disagreements over territorial control, sanctions, and security guarantees, as confirmed by official statements from Kyiv and Moscow. Prisoner swaps and limited truces like Easter's have not bridged core divides, reflecting trader consensus at 90.5% "No" probability due to entrenched military postures and lack of diplomatic momentum; a major breakthrough, such as multilateral summit progress or battlefield stalemate, would be needed to shift odds before June 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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