Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid ongoing hostilities and irreconcilable demands over eastern territories partly occupied by Russian forces. Recent developments, including mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 despite a pre-truce prisoner swap of 175 each, highlight persistent distrust rather than progress toward formal agreement. Although Zelenskyy cited a US June deadline set in February and his top aide suggested emerging compromise limits on April 10, talks remain paused due to the Iran conflict, with Russia's overnight drone strikes on April 16 killing two civilians underscoring active escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers favor no resolution by summer's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$94,169 Vol.
$94,169 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$94,169 Vol.
$94,169 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid ongoing hostilities and irreconcilable demands over eastern territories partly occupied by Russian forces. Recent developments, including mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 despite a pre-truce prisoner swap of 175 each, highlight persistent distrust rather than progress toward formal agreement. Although Zelenskyy cited a US June deadline set in February and his top aide suggested emerging compromise limits on April 10, talks remain paused due to the Iran conflict, with Russia's overnight drone strikes on April 16 killing two civilians underscoring active escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers favor no resolution by summer's end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$94,169Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid ongoing hostilities and irreconcilable demands over eastern territories partly occupied by Russian forces. Recent developments, including mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 despite a pre-truce prisoner swap of 175 each, highlight persistent distrust rather than progress toward formal agreement. Although Zelenskyy cited a US June deadline set in February and his top aide suggested emerging compromise limits on April 10, talks remain paused due to the Iran conflict, with Russia's overnight drone strikes on April 16 killing two civilians underscoring active escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers favor no resolution by summer's end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$94,169Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 at just 7.5%, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid ongoing hostilities and irreconcilable demands over eastern territories partly occupied by Russian forces. Recent developments, including mutual accusations of violating the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 despite a pre-truce prisoner swap of 175 each, highlight persistent distrust rather than progress toward formal agreement. Although Zelenskyy cited a US June deadline set in February and his top aide suggested emerging compromise limits on April 10, talks remain paused due to the Iran conflict, with Russia's overnight drone strikes on April 16 killing two civilians underscoring active escalation. Absent late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs, structural barriers favor no resolution by summer's end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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