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Geopolitica·Kim Jong Un

North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Kim Jong Un

North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?

apr 30

apr 30

61% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
61% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally oversaw a cruise and anti-ship missile test from the new 5,000-ton Choe Hyon destroyer on April 14, with all five projectiles striking targets, marking the second such naval launch in a week. This followed a three-day barrage of ballistic missile firings on April 7-9, including cluster munitions warheads, amid Pyongyang's dismissal of South Korean outreach as hostile. Traders price a 68% yes probability reflecting this accelerated testing cadence—North Korea's fifth confirmed series this year—signaling sustained provocations through April 30, consistent with historical patterns of frequent demonstrations amid U.S.-allied drills and regional tensions, though diplomatic de-escalation remains possible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$247
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korean leader Kim Jong Un personally oversaw a cruise and anti-ship missile test from the new 5,000-ton Choe Hyon destroyer on April 14, with all five projectiles striking targets, marking the second such naval launch in a week. This followed a three-day barrage of ballistic missile firings on April 7-9, including cluster munitions warheads, amid Pyongyang's dismissal of South Korean outreach as hostile. Traders price a 68% yes probability reflecting this accelerated testing cadence—North Korea's fifth confirmed series this year—signaling sustained provocations through April 30, consistent with historical patterns of frequent demonstrations amid U.S.-allied drills and regional tensions, though diplomatic de-escalation remains possible.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.

Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$247
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

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Domande frequenti

"North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 67% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 67¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 67% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 14, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?" è 67% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 67% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.