Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 that collapsed amid mutual accusations of over 2,000 violations by Russian forces, per Ukrainian reports. Both sides traded barbs over breaches, with pre-truce drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa underscoring volatility, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted peace talks paused as U.S. focus shifts to Iran. Ongoing Russian offensives, including centralized drone procurement and advances near Hulyaipole, show no de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy reiterating conditional truce offers unmet by Moscow's demands for lasting terms. Late breakthroughs like summits remain possible but unlikely absent major concessions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro il 31 maggio 2026?
Cessate il fuoco Russia x Ucraina entro il 31 maggio 2026?
Sì
$440,993 Vol.
$440,993 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Sì
$440,993 Vol.
$440,993 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 that collapsed amid mutual accusations of over 2,000 violations by Russian forces, per Ukrainian reports. Both sides traded barbs over breaches, with pre-truce drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa underscoring volatility, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted peace talks paused as U.S. focus shifts to Iran. Ongoing Russian offensives, including centralized drone procurement and advances near Hulyaipole, show no de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy reiterating conditional truce offers unmet by Moscow's demands for lasting terms. Late breakthroughs like summits remain possible but unlikely absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$440,993Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 that collapsed amid mutual accusations of over 2,000 violations by Russian forces, per Ukrainian reports. Both sides traded barbs over breaches, with pre-truce drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa underscoring volatility, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted peace talks paused as U.S. focus shifts to Iran. Ongoing Russian offensives, including centralized drone procurement and advances near Hulyaipole, show no de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy reiterating conditional truce offers unmet by Moscow's demands for lasting terms. Late breakthroughs like summits remain possible but unlikely absent major concessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$440,993Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 6.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts despite a brief 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11-12 that collapsed amid mutual accusations of over 2,000 violations by Russian forces, per Ukrainian reports. Both sides traded barbs over breaches, with pre-truce drone strikes on Sumy and Odesa underscoring volatility, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted peace talks paused as U.S. focus shifts to Iran. Ongoing Russian offensives, including centralized drone procurement and advances near Hulyaipole, show no de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy reiterating conditional truce offers unmet by Moscow's demands for lasting terms. Late breakthroughs like summits remain possible but unlikely absent major concessions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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