Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to renounce NATO membership by June 30, driven by Kyiv's steadfast rejection of such concessions amid U.S.-mediated peace talks. Following February's Geneva trilateral meetings and a U.S. June deadline for a ceasefire agreement, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in late March that membership is "not on the cards for now," prioritizing security guarantees instead. Ukrainian officials, including Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk, accused allies of yielding to Russian pressure, while President Zelenskyy reaffirmed the NATO path as non-negotiable. Stalled negotiations and no diplomatic breakthroughs signal low likelihood of reversal before the deadline, though late escalations or summits could shift dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$22,109 Vol.
$22,109 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$22,109 Vol.
$22,109 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to renounce NATO membership by June 30, driven by Kyiv's steadfast rejection of such concessions amid U.S.-mediated peace talks. Following February's Geneva trilateral meetings and a U.S. June deadline for a ceasefire agreement, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in late March that membership is "not on the cards for now," prioritizing security guarantees instead. Ukrainian officials, including Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk, accused allies of yielding to Russian pressure, while President Zelenskyy reaffirmed the NATO path as non-negotiable. Stalled negotiations and no diplomatic breakthroughs signal low likelihood of reversal before the deadline, though late escalations or summits could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$22,109Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to renounce NATO membership by June 30, driven by Kyiv's steadfast rejection of such concessions amid U.S.-mediated peace talks. Following February's Geneva trilateral meetings and a U.S. June deadline for a ceasefire agreement, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in late March that membership is "not on the cards for now," prioritizing security guarantees instead. Ukrainian officials, including Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk, accused allies of yielding to Russian pressure, while President Zelenskyy reaffirmed the NATO path as non-negotiable. Stalled negotiations and no diplomatic breakthroughs signal low likelihood of reversal before the deadline, though late escalations or summits could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$22,109Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 91.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not formally agree to renounce NATO membership by June 30, driven by Kyiv's steadfast rejection of such concessions amid U.S.-mediated peace talks. Following February's Geneva trilateral meetings and a U.S. June deadline for a ceasefire agreement, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated in late March that membership is "not on the cards for now," prioritizing security guarantees instead. Ukrainian officials, including Ambassador Alyona Getmanchuk, accused allies of yielding to Russian pressure, while President Zelenskyy reaffirmed the NATO path as non-negotiable. Stalled negotiations and no diplomatic breakthroughs signal low likelihood of reversal before the deadline, though late escalations or summits could shift dynamics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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