New People has emerged as the frontrunner for third place in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma election according to trader consensus, driven by its steady gains in recent official and independent polling amid the exclusion of Yabloko from the ballot. The party, positioned as a moderate alternative appealing to younger and business-oriented voters, has criticized certain administrative restrictions such as internet disruptions while maintaining alignment with core regime policies. This has allowed it to draw protest support that might otherwise have gone to traditional systemic opposition parties. LDPR and KPRF trail in the implied probabilities, reflecting their more stable but slower-moving bases in government-aligned surveys, while A Just Russia and smaller parties remain marginal. The three-day voting period, concluding September 20, leaves limited room for late shifts before results determine final rankings.