Recent polling shows a fragmented five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 15–16 percent, and SPD at roughly 12 percent. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats, favors substantial overhang and leveling mandates that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The CDU’s historical strength in direct mandates, even at lower statewide shares, has previously produced totals as high as 159, and current constituency-level simulations indicate similar or larger effects if direct-winner patterns hold. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to 163-plus seats, reflecting expectations that the mechanics will again inflate the house size in a closely contested race. Upcoming results on September 20 will determine the final count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato163+ 52%
<143 14.1%
153–157 9.3%
158–162 8%
$13,007 Vol.
$13,007 Vol.
20 set 2026
<143
14%
143–147
3%
148–152
5%
153–157
9%
158–162
8%
163+
52%
163+ 52%
<143 14.1%
153–157 9.3%
158–162 8%
$13,007 Vol.
$13,007 Vol.
20 set 2026
<143
$2,934 Vol.
14%
143–147
$2,051 Vol.
3%
148–152
$753 Vol.
5%
153–157
$876 Vol.
9%
158–162
$1,587 Vol.
8%
163+
$4,807 Vol.
52%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 15–16 percent, and SPD at roughly 12 percent. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats, favors substantial overhang and leveling mandates that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The CDU’s historical strength in direct mandates, even at lower statewide shares, has previously produced totals as high as 159, and current constituency-level simulations indicate similar or larger effects if direct-winner patterns hold. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to 163-plus seats, reflecting expectations that the mechanics will again inflate the house size in a closely contested race. Upcoming results on September 20 will determine the final count.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$13,007Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 15–16 percent, and SPD at roughly 12 percent. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats, favors substantial overhang and leveling mandates that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The CDU’s historical strength in direct mandates, even at lower statewide shares, has previously produced totals as high as 159, and current constituency-level simulations indicate similar or larger effects if direct-winner patterns hold. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to 163-plus seats, reflecting expectations that the mechanics will again inflate the house size in a closely contested race. Upcoming results on September 20 will determine the final count.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,007Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented five-party contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, Greens near 15–16 percent, and SPD at roughly 12 percent. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus list seats, favors substantial overhang and leveling mandates that expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat minimum. The CDU’s historical strength in direct mandates, even at lower statewide shares, has previously produced totals as high as 159, and current constituency-level simulations indicate similar or larger effects if direct-winner patterns hold. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to 163-plus seats, reflecting expectations that the mechanics will again inflate the house size in a closely contested race. Upcoming results on September 20 will determine the final count.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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