The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato35-40% 25%
50%+ 19%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<30%
9%
30-35%
13%
35-40%
25%
40-45%
18%
45-50%
18%
50%+
19%
35-40% 25%
50%+ 19%
40-45% 18%
45-50% 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
9%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
13%
35-40%
$87 Vol.
25%
40-45%
$79 Vol.
18%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
18%
50%+
$158 Vol.
19%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$593Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$593Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October follows Keir Starmer’s September resignation, with Labour selecting Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Greens naming leader Zack Polanski as their candidate. In the 2024 general election Labour took 48.9 percent here, but May 2026 local elections across the constituency’s wards showed Labour on 38.8 percent and the Greens on 28.8 percent. Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement of Polanski adds further pressure by targeting 2024 independent voters. These local trends, combined with typical by-election turnout patterns and the absence of published constituency polling, keep trader probabilities clustered between 35 and 45 percent for Labour’s share. Clear separation could emerge from final-week canvassing data, differential turnout among core Labour versus Green-leaning voters, or late shifts in national sentiment ahead of polling day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Verde otterrà meno del 20% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
27%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 15% o più?
31%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
77%
Sì
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