The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato25-30% 32%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
16%
20-25%
22%
25-30%
32%
30-35%
24%
35-40%
10%
40%+
5%
25-30% 32%
30-35% 24%
20-25% 22%
<20% 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ott 2026
<20%
$349 Vol.
16%
20-25%
$114 Vol.
22%
25-30%
$273 Vol.
32%
30-35%
$132 Vol.
24%
35-40%
$113 Vol.
10%
40%+
$120 Vol.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercato aperto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,103Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,103Data di fine
8 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Laburista otterrà il 40-45% dei voti nelle elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
33%
Sì
Il candidato laburista vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras con un margine del 15% o più?
27%
Sì
Sagal Abdi-Wali vincerà le elezioni suppletive di Holborn e St Pancras?
78%
Sì
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