The US maintains its longstanding One Somalia policy, recognizing Somalia's territorial integrity including Somaliland, with no formal shift under the current administration despite Israel's December 2025 recognition of the breakaway region. President Trump stated shortly after that move that the United States would not follow suit, describing the issue as one requiring further study, and subsequent State Department statements have confirmed continuity in policy. Somaliland has intensified lobbying with offers of exclusive mineral access and potential military basing along the Gulf of Aden, while Somalia has countered with its own strategic proposals; however, these overtures have not produced any announced diplomatic steps or congressional legislation advancing recognition. Regional bodies including the African Union and Arab League have opposed altering the status quo, and concerns over counterterrorism cooperation with Mogadishu remain relevant factors. With roughly 18 months remaining before 2027 and no scheduled votes, summits, or executive actions indicating imminent change, traders assign low probability to recognition occurring in the window.