**The high implied probability (88.9%) on "No" for Trump recognizing Somaliland before 2027 reflects the Trump administration's continued adherence to the longstanding "One Somalia" policy supporting the territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.** Official U.S. statements, including from the State Department, have repeatedly reaffirmed this position, with no formal recognition or shift in diplomatic status occurring despite external pressure. Key recent developments reinforcing trader consensus include President Trump's December 2025 comments explicitly declining to follow Israel's December 26 recognition of Somaliland, stating the U.S. would "study" the matter while signaling opposition to rapid action. A June 2026 State Department report, prompted by congressional interest, was described as bureaucratic and produced no policy change or new engagement framework. Somaliland officials have actively lobbied the administration with offers of exclusive mineral access and potential military basing rights along the Gulf of Aden, while Somalia has countered with similar proposals, but these have not altered the U.S. stance. Structural barriers include risks to counterterrorism cooperation with Somalia's federal government, potential regional instability in the Horn of Africa, and the precedent of secessionist movements elsewhere on the continent. Bipartisan congressional interest exists, including proposed legislation, yet no votes or executive actions have advanced recognition. With the 2027 deadline approaching and no verifiable movement toward formal diplomatic recognition or a representative office in Hargeisa, market pricing aligns with the absence of concrete policy shifts.