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icon for Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

icon for Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?
Politica·James Comey

Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?

$410,572 Vol.

Polymarket

$410,572 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$164,421 Vol.

9%

John Brennan

$22,244 Vol.

21%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,220 Vol.

11%

Adam Schiff

$16,570 Vol.

2%

Barack Obama

$29,276 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,293 Vol.

9%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,328 Vol.

21%

James Clapper

$6,774 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$3,047 Vol.

10%

Hillary Clinton

$26,162 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,726 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

8%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,406 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,936 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$2,189 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,331 Vol.

5%

Kash Patel

$598 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,284 Vol.

12%

Lisa Cook

$4,005 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

12%

Joe Biden

$7,481 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus centers on former U.S. intelligence officials and activists facing congressional scrutiny or enforcement proceedings. John Brennan and James Comey register elevated shares due to ongoing probes into prior agency actions and related congressional oversight. Mahmoud Khalil's position stems from prior immigration detention and potential follow-on proceedings tied to protest activity. International entries such as Lee Jae-myung reflect domestic court timelines and legislative efforts that could alter detention prospects before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Recent DOJ and ICE operations, Senate appearances involving Fifth Amendment invocations, and scheduled hearings supply the primary catalysts traders weigh against structural barriers like prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$410,572
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus centers on former U.S. intelligence officials and activists facing congressional scrutiny or enforcement proceedings. John Brennan and James Comey register elevated shares due to ongoing probes into prior agency actions and related congressional oversight. Mahmoud Khalil's position stems from prior immigration detention and potential follow-on proceedings tied to protest activity. International entries such as Lee Jae-myung reflect domestic court timelines and legislative efforts that could alter detention prospects before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Recent DOJ and ICE operations, Senate appearances involving Fifth Amendment invocations, and scheduled hearings supply the primary catalysts traders weigh against structural barriers like prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$410,572
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

Correlati

icon for Obama arrestato prima del 2027?

Obama arrestato prima del 2027?

3%
Sì
icon for José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sarà arrestato entro il 31 dicembre 2026?

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sarà arrestato entro il 31 dicembre 2026?

12%
Sì
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?

Lee Jae-myung arrestato prima del 2027?

7%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 24 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "John Brennan" a 21%, seguito da "Mahmoud Khalil" a 21%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 21¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 21% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" ha generato $410.6K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 30, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?", esplora i 24 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" è "John Brennan" a 21%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 21% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Mahmoud Khalil" a 21%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Chi verrà arrestato prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.