Trader consensus prices a 90.4% implied probability against former President Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ criminal proceedings despite partisan rhetoric. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified reports alleging Obama-era orchestration of false Russia interference intelligence to undermine Trump's 2016 campaign, prompting AG Pam Bondi to launch a grand jury probe into administration officials that August. However, no developments have advanced to prosecution by April 2026, hampered by high evidentiary bars, potential presidential immunity claims, and historical precedents against charging ex-presidents. Social media rumors and Trump posts, including AI-generated arrest videos, fuel speculation but lack official traction, with traders awaiting concrete legal catalysts like a special counsel indictment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 90.4% implied probability against former President Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ criminal proceedings despite partisan rhetoric. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified reports alleging Obama-era orchestration of false Russia interference intelligence to undermine Trump's 2016 campaign, prompting AG Pam Bondi to launch a grand jury probe into administration officials that August. However, no developments have advanced to prosecution by April 2026, hampered by high evidentiary bars, potential presidential immunity claims, and historical precedents against charging ex-presidents. Social media rumors and Trump posts, including AI-generated arrest videos, fuel speculation but lack official traction, with traders awaiting concrete legal catalysts like a special counsel indictment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$4,096Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 90.4% implied probability against former President Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ criminal proceedings despite partisan rhetoric. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified reports alleging Obama-era orchestration of false Russia interference intelligence to undermine Trump's 2016 campaign, prompting AG Pam Bondi to launch a grand jury probe into administration officials that August. However, no developments have advanced to prosecution by April 2026, hampered by high evidentiary bars, potential presidential immunity claims, and historical precedents against charging ex-presidents. Social media rumors and Trump posts, including AI-generated arrest videos, fuel speculation but lack official traction, with traders awaiting concrete legal catalysts like a special counsel indictment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,096Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90.4% implied probability against former President Barack Obama facing arrest before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal charges, indictment, or DOJ criminal proceedings despite partisan rhetoric. In July 2025, DNI Tulsi Gabbard declassified reports alleging Obama-era orchestration of false Russia interference intelligence to undermine Trump's 2016 campaign, prompting AG Pam Bondi to launch a grand jury probe into administration officials that August. However, no developments have advanced to prosecution by April 2026, hampered by high evidentiary bars, potential presidential immunity claims, and historical precedents against charging ex-presidents. Social media rumors and Trump posts, including AI-generated arrest videos, fuel speculation but lack official traction, with traders awaiting concrete legal catalysts like a special counsel indictment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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