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Politica·Ucraina

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Market icon
Politica·Ucraina

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

7% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
7% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, anchored by unrepaired damage from the 2022 Baltic Sea sabotage and Germany's official rejection of revival talks. Despite Russian claims in September 2025 that an intact section could activate quickly and earlier 2025 speculation around US-Russia discussions or a CDU proposal, Berlin confirmed no negotiations, citing missing certification, and a key Danish repair permit expired that month. EU sanctions on Russian gas persist amid the Ukraine conflict, with diversification to LNG and renewables reducing reliance; ongoing sabotage probes, including a November 2025 Italian extradition approval, add legal hurdles. Only a dramatic diplomatic thaw, like sanctions relief, could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$7,607
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 93% for Nord Stream pipelines resuming operations before 2027, anchored by unrepaired damage from the 2022 Baltic Sea sabotage and Germany's official rejection of revival talks. Despite Russian claims in September 2025 that an intact section could activate quickly and earlier 2025 speculation around US-Russia discussions or a CDU proposal, Berlin confirmed no negotiations, citing missing certification, and a key Danish repair permit expired that month. EU sanctions on Russian gas persist amid the Ukraine conflict, with diversification to LNG and renewables reducing reliance; ongoing sabotage probes, including a November 2025 Italian extradition approval, add legal hurdles. Only a dramatic diplomatic thaw, like sanctions relief, could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Volume
$7,607
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Domande frequenti

"Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 7% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 7¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 7% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Nov 5, 2025. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" è 7% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 7% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.