Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for any EU member state withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations, exit referendums, or official proceedings since Brexit, coupled with strong public support for membership—such as Poland's 82% approval in recent CBOS polling. Recent Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" amid President Nawrocki's veto of €44 billion in EU defense loans and opposition pushback on EU asylum rules, yet fact-checks confirm no legal momentum, with economic benefits from cohesion funds and CAP subsidies deterring action. Hungary's April 2026 election ousting Viktor Orbán further reduces Eurosceptic risks. Late-breaking scandals, far-right electoral surges, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, but procedural hurdles and 2027 parliamentary timelines in key states like Poland limit near-term viability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualsiasi paese si ritira dall'UE prima del 2027?
Qualsiasi paese si ritira dall'UE prima del 2027?
Sì
$112,150 Vol.
$112,150 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$112,150 Vol.
$112,150 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for any EU member state withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations, exit referendums, or official proceedings since Brexit, coupled with strong public support for membership—such as Poland's 82% approval in recent CBOS polling. Recent Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" amid President Nawrocki's veto of €44 billion in EU defense loans and opposition pushback on EU asylum rules, yet fact-checks confirm no legal momentum, with economic benefits from cohesion funds and CAP subsidies deterring action. Hungary's April 2026 election ousting Viktor Orbán further reduces Eurosceptic risks. Late-breaking scandals, far-right electoral surges, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, but procedural hurdles and 2027 parliamentary timelines in key states like Poland limit near-term viability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$112,150Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for any EU member state withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations, exit referendums, or official proceedings since Brexit, coupled with strong public support for membership—such as Poland's 82% approval in recent CBOS polling. Recent Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" amid President Nawrocki's veto of €44 billion in EU defense loans and opposition pushback on EU asylum rules, yet fact-checks confirm no legal momentum, with economic benefits from cohesion funds and CAP subsidies deterring action. Hungary's April 2026 election ousting Viktor Orbán further reduces Eurosceptic risks. Late-breaking scandals, far-right electoral surges, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, but procedural hurdles and 2027 parliamentary timelines in key states like Poland limit near-term viability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112,150Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for any EU member state withdrawing before 2027, reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations, exit referendums, or official proceedings since Brexit, coupled with strong public support for membership—such as Poland's 82% approval in recent CBOS polling. Recent Polexit rhetoric peaked in March 2026 when Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of a "real threat" amid President Nawrocki's veto of €44 billion in EU defense loans and opposition pushback on EU asylum rules, yet fact-checks confirm no legal momentum, with economic benefits from cohesion funds and CAP subsidies deterring action. Hungary's April 2026 election ousting Viktor Orbán further reduces Eurosceptic risks. Late-breaking scandals, far-right electoral surges, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, but procedural hurdles and 2027 parliamentary timelines in key states like Poland limit near-term viability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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