Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
$161,832 Vol.
$161,832 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$161,832 Vol.
$161,832 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$161,832Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$161,832Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to the European Union enduring past 2026, reflecting the absence of any member state invoking Article 50, pursuing exit referendums, or proposing treaty dissolution amid deep economic interdependence and complex ratification hurdles requiring unanimity among 27 nations. Recent Hungarian elections on April 13 saw Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban's party lose ground, bolstering pro-EU forces in the European Parliament and reducing internal veto threats. Ongoing enlargement negotiations with Ukraine and Montenegro underscore institutional momentum toward expansion, not contraction. Realistic shifts would demand unprecedented triggers like multiple sovereign debt defaults, war escalation fracturing alliances, or coordinated populist no-confidence votes toppling pro-EU governments bloc-wide.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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