Traders assign a 98.5% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the bloc's entrenched treaty framework, qualified majority voting rules, and deep economic interdependence among 27 member states that make rapid dissolution procedurally and politically remote. Recent national elections, fiscal coordination efforts, and joint policy responses on trade, migration, and security have reinforced institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical patterns of enlargement and incremental reform further support this consensus in the short window to year-end. Even so, an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous exits, a major external shock triggering coordinated withdrawal, or an internal constitutional crisis could still shift probabilities, though none show verifiable momentum at present.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
2% probabilità
$180,204 Vol.
$180,204 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
2% probabilità
$180,204 Vol.
$180,204 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the bloc's entrenched treaty framework, qualified majority voting rules, and deep economic interdependence among 27 member states that make rapid dissolution procedurally and politically remote. Recent national elections, fiscal coordination efforts, and joint policy responses on trade, migration, and security have reinforced institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical patterns of enlargement and incremental reform further support this consensus in the short window to year-end. Even so, an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous exits, a major external shock triggering coordinated withdrawal, or an internal constitutional crisis could still shift probabilities, though none show verifiable momentum at present.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$180,204Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the bloc's entrenched treaty framework, qualified majority voting rules, and deep economic interdependence among 27 member states that make rapid dissolution procedurally and politically remote. Recent national elections, fiscal coordination efforts, and joint policy responses on trade, migration, and security have reinforced institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical patterns of enlargement and incremental reform further support this consensus in the short window to year-end. Even so, an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous exits, a major external shock triggering coordinated withdrawal, or an internal constitutional crisis could still shift probabilities, though none show verifiable momentum at present.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$180,204Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.5% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, reflecting the bloc's entrenched treaty framework, qualified majority voting rules, and deep economic interdependence among 27 member states that make rapid dissolution procedurally and politically remote. Recent national elections, fiscal coordination efforts, and joint policy responses on trade, migration, and security have reinforced institutional continuity rather than fragmentation. Historical patterns of enlargement and incremental reform further support this consensus in the short window to year-end. Even so, an unprecedented cascade of simultaneous exits, a major external shock triggering coordinated withdrawal, or an internal constitutional crisis could still shift probabilities, though none show verifiable momentum at present.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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