The EU's treaty framework and institutional architecture make dissolution highly improbable, requiring unanimous member-state agreement on fundamental treaty revisions that no coordinated effort currently pursues. Traders assign 96.7% probability to continuation through 2026, reflecting sustained internal alignment on shared priorities such as defense cooperation, enlargement processes, and the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework negotiations. Recent steps, including Bulgaria's euro adoption and proposals for a harmonized EU corporate legal form, underscore deepening integration rather than fragmentation. While events like national elections or external shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of credible exit cascades or institutional breakdown sustains the market's strong consensus on persistence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
$170,009 Vol.
$170,009 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$170,009 Vol.
$170,009 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework and institutional architecture make dissolution highly improbable, requiring unanimous member-state agreement on fundamental treaty revisions that no coordinated effort currently pursues. Traders assign 96.7% probability to continuation through 2026, reflecting sustained internal alignment on shared priorities such as defense cooperation, enlargement processes, and the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework negotiations. Recent steps, including Bulgaria's euro adoption and proposals for a harmonized EU corporate legal form, underscore deepening integration rather than fragmentation. While events like national elections or external shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of credible exit cascades or institutional breakdown sustains the market's strong consensus on persistence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$170,009Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework and institutional architecture make dissolution highly improbable, requiring unanimous member-state agreement on fundamental treaty revisions that no coordinated effort currently pursues. Traders assign 96.7% probability to continuation through 2026, reflecting sustained internal alignment on shared priorities such as defense cooperation, enlargement processes, and the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework negotiations. Recent steps, including Bulgaria's euro adoption and proposals for a harmonized EU corporate legal form, underscore deepening integration rather than fragmentation. While events like national elections or external shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of credible exit cascades or institutional breakdown sustains the market's strong consensus on persistence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$170,009Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The EU's treaty framework and institutional architecture make dissolution highly improbable, requiring unanimous member-state agreement on fundamental treaty revisions that no coordinated effort currently pursues. Traders assign 96.7% probability to continuation through 2026, reflecting sustained internal alignment on shared priorities such as defense cooperation, enlargement processes, and the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework negotiations. Recent steps, including Bulgaria's euro adoption and proposals for a harmonized EU corporate legal form, underscore deepening integration rather than fragmentation. While events like national elections or external shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of credible exit cascades or institutional breakdown sustains the market's strong consensus on persistence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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