Trader consensus reflects 96% implied probability on "No" for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents or official Iranian statements despite viral social media claims and secondary reports since late March amid US-Iran military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Fact-checks confirm no credible evidence of threats from Iranian authorities, with cables like 2Africa Pearl and SEA-ME-WE remaining intact amid contingency rerouting by operators such as Meta and Google. Sabotage poses severe risks for Iran, including naval retaliation from US-led forces and self-inflicted connectivity disruptions, outweighing asymmetric incentives. Late-breaking proxy actions by IRGC or Houthis, or further de-escalation signals, could shift odds before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran saboterà i cavi internet sottomarini entro il 30 aprile?
L'Iran saboterà i cavi internet sottomarini entro il 30 aprile?
$88,425 Vol.
$88,425 Vol.
30 apr 2026
$88,425 Vol.
$88,425 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 96% implied probability on "No" for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents or official Iranian statements despite viral social media claims and secondary reports since late March amid US-Iran military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Fact-checks confirm no credible evidence of threats from Iranian authorities, with cables like 2Africa Pearl and SEA-ME-WE remaining intact amid contingency rerouting by operators such as Meta and Google. Sabotage poses severe risks for Iran, including naval retaliation from US-led forces and self-inflicted connectivity disruptions, outweighing asymmetric incentives. Late-breaking proxy actions by IRGC or Houthis, or further de-escalation signals, could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$88,425Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 96% implied probability on "No" for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents or official Iranian statements despite viral social media claims and secondary reports since late March amid US-Iran military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Fact-checks confirm no credible evidence of threats from Iranian authorities, with cables like 2Africa Pearl and SEA-ME-WE remaining intact amid contingency rerouting by operators such as Meta and Google. Sabotage poses severe risks for Iran, including naval retaliation from US-led forces and self-inflicted connectivity disruptions, outweighing asymmetric incentives. Late-breaking proxy actions by IRGC or Houthis, or further de-escalation signals, could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,425Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 96% implied probability on "No" for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, driven by the absence of any verified incidents or official Iranian statements despite viral social media claims and secondary reports since late March amid US-Iran military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Fact-checks confirm no credible evidence of threats from Iranian authorities, with cables like 2Africa Pearl and SEA-ME-WE remaining intact amid contingency rerouting by operators such as Meta and Google. Sabotage poses severe risks for Iran, including naval retaliation from US-led forces and self-inflicted connectivity disruptions, outweighing asymmetric incentives. Late-breaking proxy actions by IRGC or Houthis, or further de-escalation signals, could shift odds before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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