United States and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes, assassinations, and a recently imposed naval blockade targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and ports since launching the conflict on February 28, driving trader focus on potential escalation before the April 30 deadline. A fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect last week following intensified strikes, with negotiations underway in Islamabad amid US warnings of economic pressure via the blockade. Iran has retaliated through missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, while proxies like Hezbollah launch cross-border attacks from Lebanon. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia provide logistical support such as bases and radar but have not initiated direct strikes; European allies like the UK and Germany offer limited basing without offensive action. Upcoming truce extension talks and Iranian responses to the Hormuz Strait restrictions could tip probabilities, underscoring the contested outlook reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuali paesi condurranno un'azione militare contro l'Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Quali paesi condurranno un'azione militare contro l'Iran entro il 30 aprile?
$2,751,805 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Emirati Arabi Uniti
7%
Arabia Saudita
5%
Kuwait
3%
Qatar
2%
Qualsiasi paese dell'UE
2%
Turchia
2%
Regno Unito
2%
Bahrein
2%
Giordania
1%
Oman
1%
Germania
1%
Canada
<1%
Francia
<1%
$2,751,805 Vol.
Emirati Arabi Uniti
$1,333,861 Vol.
7%
Arabia Saudita
$510,689 Vol.
5%
Kuwait
$115,149 Vol.
3%
Qatar
$27,577 Vol.
2%
Qualsiasi paese dell'UE
$44,927 Vol.
2%
Turchia
$68,991 Vol.
2%
Regno Unito
$220,828 Vol.
2%
Bahrein
$45,115 Vol.
2%
Giordania
$19,699 Vol.
1%
Oman
$30,136 Vol.
1%
Germania
$120,121 Vol.
1%
Canada
$39,886 Vol.
<1%
Francia
$174,988 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes, assassinations, and a recently imposed naval blockade targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and ports since launching the conflict on February 28, driving trader focus on potential escalation before the April 30 deadline. A fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect last week following intensified strikes, with negotiations underway in Islamabad amid US warnings of economic pressure via the blockade. Iran has retaliated through missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, while proxies like Hezbollah launch cross-border attacks from Lebanon. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia provide logistical support such as bases and radar but have not initiated direct strikes; European allies like the UK and Germany offer limited basing without offensive action. Upcoming truce extension talks and Iranian responses to the Hormuz Strait restrictions could tip probabilities, underscoring the contested outlook reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,751,805Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes, assassinations, and a recently imposed naval blockade targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and ports since launching the conflict on February 28, driving trader focus on potential escalation before the April 30 deadline. A fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect last week following intensified strikes, with negotiations underway in Islamabad amid US warnings of economic pressure via the blockade. Iran has retaliated through missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, while proxies like Hezbollah launch cross-border attacks from Lebanon. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia provide logistical support such as bases and radar but have not initiated direct strikes; European allies like the UK and Germany offer limited basing without offensive action. Upcoming truce extension talks and Iranian responses to the Hormuz Strait restrictions could tip probabilities, underscoring the contested outlook reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,751,805Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United States and Israeli forces have conducted extensive airstrikes, assassinations, and a recently imposed naval blockade targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and ports since launching the conflict on February 28, driving trader focus on potential escalation before the April 30 deadline. A fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan took effect last week following intensified strikes, with negotiations underway in Islamabad amid US warnings of economic pressure via the blockade. Iran has retaliated through missile barrages on Israel and US bases in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, while proxies like Hezbollah launch cross-border attacks from Lebanon. Gulf states including Saudi Arabia provide logistical support such as bases and radar but have not initiated direct strikes; European allies like the UK and Germany offer limited basing without offensive action. Upcoming truce extension talks and Iranian responses to the Hormuz Strait restrictions could tip probabilities, underscoring the contested outlook reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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