A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, holds tenuously amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since April 13, which Iran views as economic warfare and has vowed to counter with strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan, Saudi Abqaiq, or Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Iranian military spokesmen signaled an end to restraint on April 6, rejecting Trump's deadlines while launching sporadic missile and drone attacks on US assets and allies. Ongoing Islamabad negotiations focus on suspending Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the strait, but failure risks escalation before the truce expires around April 22. Traders assess proxy threats via Hezbollah and Houthis as less likely direct actions defining market resolution by April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?
Contro cosa condurrà l'Iran un'azione militare entro il 30 aprile?
$463,744 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Raffineria di Ruwais
25%
Campo di Habshan/Complesso di lavorazione
16%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
22%
Ras Tanura
19%
Giacimento di Khurais
19%
Impianto di lavorazione del petrolio di Abqaiq
14%
Raffineria di Al Zour
13%
Giacimento di Ghawar
11%
Giacimento di Safaniya
9%
Giacimento Leviathan
8%
Burj Khalifa
3%
Dimona (Centro di Ricerca Nucleare Shimon Peres del Negev)
2%
$463,744 Vol.
Raffineria di Ruwais
$39,648 Vol.
25%
Campo di Habshan/Complesso di lavorazione
$46,277 Vol.
16%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$35,857 Vol.
22%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Vol.
19%
Giacimento di Khurais
$14,786 Vol.
19%
Impianto di lavorazione del petrolio di Abqaiq
$38,125 Vol.
14%
Raffineria di Al Zour
$30,213 Vol.
13%
Giacimento di Ghawar
$12,229 Vol.
11%
Giacimento di Safaniya
$11,512 Vol.
9%
Giacimento Leviathan
$7,662 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$8,189 Vol.
3%
Dimona (Centro di Ricerca Nucleare Shimon Peres del Negev)
$78,280 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, holds tenuously amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since April 13, which Iran views as economic warfare and has vowed to counter with strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan, Saudi Abqaiq, or Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Iranian military spokesmen signaled an end to restraint on April 6, rejecting Trump's deadlines while launching sporadic missile and drone attacks on US assets and allies. Ongoing Islamabad negotiations focus on suspending Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the strait, but failure risks escalation before the truce expires around April 22. Traders assess proxy threats via Hezbollah and Houthis as less likely direct actions defining market resolution by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$463,744Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, holds tenuously amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since April 13, which Iran views as economic warfare and has vowed to counter with strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan, Saudi Abqaiq, or Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Iranian military spokesmen signaled an end to restraint on April 6, rejecting Trump's deadlines while launching sporadic missile and drone attacks on US assets and allies. Ongoing Islamabad negotiations focus on suspending Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the strait, but failure risks escalation before the truce expires around April 22. Traders assess proxy threats via Hezbollah and Houthis as less likely direct actions defining market resolution by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$463,744Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered by Pakistan on April 8, holds tenuously amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enforced since April 13, which Iran views as economic warfare and has vowed to counter with strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure like Qatar's Ras Laffan, Saudi Abqaiq, or Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Iranian military spokesmen signaled an end to restraint on April 6, rejecting Trump's deadlines while launching sporadic missile and drone attacks on US assets and allies. Ongoing Islamabad negotiations focus on suspending Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the strait, but failure risks escalation before the truce expires around April 22. Traders assess proxy threats via Hezbollah and Houthis as less likely direct actions defining market resolution by April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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