US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi mirerà con successo l'Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Quante navi mirerà con successo l'Iran entro il 30 aprile?
2–3 54%
4–5 18%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Vol.
$60,967 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2–3
54%
4–5
18%
6–7
7%
8–9
8%
10+
4%
2–3 54%
4–5 18%
8–9 8%
6–7 7%
$60,967 Vol.
$60,967 Vol.
30 apr 2026
2–3
$8,552 Vol.
54%
4–5
$14,175 Vol.
18%
6–7
$3,596 Vol.
7%
8–9
$6,654 Vol.
8%
10+
$3,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$60,967Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60,967Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports since April 13, amid stalled ceasefire talks, has prompted Iranian threats to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea, yet superior US intercepts and strikes—destroying numerous IRGC fast boats and vessels—have curtailed Tehran's strike capacity, with missile fire down 90% per recent assessments. Traders' consensus favoring 2–3 successful hits by April 30 reflects March's ~20 commercial vessel attacks (mostly damages via drones/mines) but a sharp April drop-off, as degraded naval assets limit escalation. Houthi proxies may enable 2–3 Red Sea strikes, though deterrence and ongoing US operations cap higher tallies absent major breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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