Polymarket traders price a 96.2% implied probability on "No" for Federal Reserve abolition before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy since 1913 and insurmountable legislative hurdles, including bicameral approval and presidential signature absent crisis-level consensus. Symbolic bills like H.R.1846 (Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act) introduced in the 119th Congress remain stalled without hearings or advancement in the past 30 days, underscoring libertarian fringe support but broad bipartisan resistance amid ongoing economic stability. President Trump's April 15 threats to fire Chair Powell—whose term ends next month—signal leadership tensions and reputational risk scrutiny but target personnel, not dissolution. Tail risks include a severe recession prompting radical reform or improbable GOP supermajorities post-midterms, though proximity to resolution favors status quo pricing.