The U.S. has pursued regime change in Cuba through an oil import blockade and expanded sanctions imposed via executive order in January 2026, following the Venezuela operation, alongside tariffs on third-country suppliers and the May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro. Military assets including the USS Nimitz carrier group and Marine units have been positioned in the Caribbean for surveillance and signaling, yet senior officials have stated no invasion is planned or imminent, emphasizing economic pressure and preference for a peaceful transition instead. Analysts cite substantial logistical requirements for any ground operation, risks of urban insurgency, and Cuba’s defensive preparations as deterrents, consistent with historical U.S. reliance on sanctions over direct intervention. These factors support trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely through the remainder of 2026 absent a major escalation trigger.