Despite recent Democratic-led calls to invoke the 25th Amendment—sparked by President Trump's profanity-laced threats against Iran around April 10, including resolutions from lawmakers like Rep. Larson and bills introduced April 15—trader consensus holds at 92.5% "No" due to insurmountable procedural hurdles. Invocation under Section 4 requires Vice President JD Vance and a majority of principal cabinet officers to declare the president unable to discharge duties, followed by potential two-thirds congressional votes if contested; no such support has emerged from Trump's loyal appointees, who report a holding ceasefire with Iran. Historical precedent shows the amendment used only for temporary transfers, never permanent removal, underscoring the high bar amid ongoing partisan rhetoric but absent key actor buy-in. Late-breaking health events or cabinet defections could shift odds, though none are evident.