Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any official statements, health issues, or scandals compelling such a move early in his second term. Recent partisan speculation, including Democratic strategist James Carville's repeated predictions of post-midterm resignation amid potential investigations if Democrats gain House control, has failed to shift odds significantly, as markets prioritize verifiable actions over punditry. Trump's active engagement—authorizing military actions against Iran, addressing NATO commitments, and replacing high-ranking officials like national security adviser Mike Waltz—signals commitment to his full term through 2029, barring unforeseen legal, health, or impeachment developments ahead of November 2026 midterms.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any official statements, health issues, or scandals compelling such a move early in his second term. Recent partisan speculation, including Democratic strategist James Carville's repeated predictions of post-midterm resignation amid potential investigations if Democrats gain House control, has failed to shift odds significantly, as markets prioritize verifiable actions over punditry. Trump's active engagement—authorizing military actions against Iran, addressing NATO commitments, and replacing high-ranking officials like national security adviser Mike Waltz—signals commitment to his full term through 2029, barring unforeseen legal, health, or impeachment developments ahead of November 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$431,570Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any official statements, health issues, or scandals compelling such a move early in his second term. Recent partisan speculation, including Democratic strategist James Carville's repeated predictions of post-midterm resignation amid potential investigations if Democrats gain House control, has failed to shift odds significantly, as markets prioritize verifiable actions over punditry. Trump's active engagement—authorizing military actions against Iran, addressing NATO commitments, and replacing high-ranking officials like national security adviser Mike Waltz—signals commitment to his full term through 2029, barring unforeseen legal, health, or impeachment developments ahead of November 2026 midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$431,570Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability that President Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any official statements, health issues, or scandals compelling such a move early in his second term. Recent partisan speculation, including Democratic strategist James Carville's repeated predictions of post-midterm resignation amid potential investigations if Democrats gain House control, has failed to shift odds significantly, as markets prioritize verifiable actions over punditry. Trump's active engagement—authorizing military actions against Iran, addressing NATO commitments, and replacing high-ranking officials like national security adviser Mike Waltz—signals commitment to his full term through 2029, barring unforeseen legal, health, or impeachment developments ahead of November 2026 midterms.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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