The robust trader consensus against a Trump resignation by the end of 2026 stems primarily from the lack of any public statements, health disclosures, or institutional pressures indicating an early departure during the current presidential term. Historical patterns show presidents completing terms unless facing acute crises, and no such developments have emerged in recent months to shift this baseline. Policy priorities, cabinet continuity, and electoral positioning for future cycles further align incentives toward serving out the full period. Even at this elevated implied probability, factors such as a sudden medical event, major legal ruling, or unforeseen personal decision could still prompt reconsideration, though none appear imminent based on available information.