Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoI seggi repubblicani alla Camera dopo le elezioni di medio termine del 2026?
I seggi repubblicani alla Camera dopo le elezioni di medio termine del 2026?
$204,844 Vol.
$204,844 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Below 190
36%
190-194
31%
195-199
12%
200-204
7%
205-209
5%
210-214
2%
215-219
5%
220-224
5%
225-229
3%
230+
<1%
$204,844 Vol.
$204,844 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Below 190
$8,957 Vol.
36%
190-194
$5,682 Vol.
31%
195-199
$26,564 Vol.
12%
200-204
$20,990 Vol.
7%
205-209
$32,325 Vol.
5%
210-214
$11,123 Vol.
2%
215-219
$5,281 Vol.
5%
220-224
$50,757 Vol.
5%
225-229
$19,139 Vol.
3%
230+
$24,026 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$204,844Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$204,844Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Republican House seats below 190 at 35.5% and 190-194 at 31.0%, reflecting a Democratic generic ballot edge of 5.4 points in Nate Silver's April 15 average amid stable polling during the unpopular Iran War, where Democrats have excelled in recent special elections. This positions the GOP's slim 218-seat majority vulnerable to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, exacerbated by 36 Republican retirements versus 21 Democrats and Cook Political Report's April 7 shifts tilting five competitive races toward Democrats in battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Florida. The tight contest persists due to narrow polling margins, uncertain primary outcomes in swing states, and Electoral College-like district math favoring incumbents. Shifts in presidential approval, economic data, or war escalation could widen separation ahead of November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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