Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats ahead of the November 2026 midterms, defending 22 of the 35 seats in play amid a map that includes competitive contests in North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan, and Alaska. Trader pricing across the distribution—led by ≤47 seats at 23.5% and clustered probabilities for 48–52—reflects expectations of net Republican losses typical in midterm cycles, influenced by retirements, open-seat dynamics, and polling in toss-ups. Key differentiators among outcomes include results in battleground races, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in state-level fundamentals, while scheduled primaries and ongoing campaign developments through early fall could consolidate support toward higher or lower seat totals by clarifying candidate strength and national conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,738,467 Vol.
$2,738,467 Vol.
3 nov 2026
≤47
24%
48
12%
49
14%
50
14%
51
14%
52
12%
53
4%
54
2%
55
2%
56
2%
57+
2%
$2,738,467 Vol.
$2,738,467 Vol.
3 nov 2026
≤47
$167,938 Vol.
24%
48
$39,907 Vol.
12%
49
$50,503 Vol.
14%
50
$115,799 Vol.
14%
51
$220,821 Vol.
14%
52
$586,147 Vol.
12%
53
$69,259 Vol.
4%
54
$762,912 Vol.
2%
55
$430,052 Vol.
2%
56
$182,960 Vol.
2%
57+
$112,170 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats ahead of the November 2026 midterms, defending 22 of the 35 seats in play amid a map that includes competitive contests in North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan, and Alaska. Trader pricing across the distribution—led by ≤47 seats at 23.5% and clustered probabilities for 48–52—reflects expectations of net Republican losses typical in midterm cycles, influenced by retirements, open-seat dynamics, and polling in toss-ups. Key differentiators among outcomes include results in battleground races, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in state-level fundamentals, while scheduled primaries and ongoing campaign developments through early fall could consolidate support toward higher or lower seat totals by clarifying candidate strength and national conditions.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,738,467Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats ahead of the November 2026 midterms, defending 22 of the 35 seats in play amid a map that includes competitive contests in North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan, and Alaska. Trader pricing across the distribution—led by ≤47 seats at 23.5% and clustered probabilities for 48–52—reflects expectations of net Republican losses typical in midterm cycles, influenced by retirements, open-seat dynamics, and polling in toss-ups. Key differentiators among outcomes include results in battleground races, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in state-level fundamentals, while scheduled primaries and ongoing campaign developments through early fall could consolidate support toward higher or lower seat totals by clarifying candidate strength and national conditions.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,738,467Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats ahead of the November 2026 midterms, defending 22 of the 35 seats in play amid a map that includes competitive contests in North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, Michigan, and Alaska. Trader pricing across the distribution—led by ≤47 seats at 23.5% and clustered probabilities for 48–52—reflects expectations of net Republican losses typical in midterm cycles, influenced by retirements, open-seat dynamics, and polling in toss-ups. Key differentiators among outcomes include results in battleground races, voter turnout patterns, and any late shifts in state-level fundamentals, while scheduled primaries and ongoing campaign developments through early fall could consolidate support toward higher or lower seat totals by clarifying candidate strength and national conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
I Repubblicani deterranno 47–49 seggi al Senato e 193–207 seggi alla Camera dopo le elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
18%
Sì
I repubblicani ottengono la Trifecta con la supermaggioranza al Senato nelle elezioni di metà mandato?
5%
Sì
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
60%
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