As of early August 2026, trader consensus centers on the 20–23 and 24–27 ranges for Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting 23 announced departures to date according to tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional records. Key drivers include recent retirements by members such as Raúl Grijalva, Jan Schakowsky, and others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside Nancy Pelosi’s exit, amid a broader wave of 59 total incumbents stepping aside. Primary factors positioning these buckets as leaders are the pace of additional announcements before state filing deadlines, historical patterns of late-cycle retirements in the minority party, and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shocks that typically accelerate exits. The distribution leaves room for modest upward movement if several more Democrats opt out, while downward shifts remain limited absent reversals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato20–23 38.4%
24–27 27%
28–31 16%
32–35 10.8%
$34,931 Vol.
$34,931 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
3%
20–23
38%
24–27
27%
28–31
16%
32–35
11%
36–39
6%
40 o più
7%
20–23 38.4%
24–27 27%
28–31 16%
32–35 10.8%
$34,931 Vol.
$34,931 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
$17,244 Vol.
3%
20–23
$5,922 Vol.
38%
24–27
$4,545 Vol.
27%
28–31
$1,295 Vol.
16%
32–35
$3,958 Vol.
11%
36–39
$874 Vol.
6%
40 o più
$1,093 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, trader consensus centers on the 20–23 and 24–27 ranges for Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting 23 announced departures to date according to tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional records. Key drivers include recent retirements by members such as Raúl Grijalva, Jan Schakowsky, and others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside Nancy Pelosi’s exit, amid a broader wave of 59 total incumbents stepping aside. Primary factors positioning these buckets as leaders are the pace of additional announcements before state filing deadlines, historical patterns of late-cycle retirements in the minority party, and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shocks that typically accelerate exits. The distribution leaves room for modest upward movement if several more Democrats opt out, while downward shifts remain limited absent reversals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$34,931Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, trader consensus centers on the 20–23 and 24–27 ranges for Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting 23 announced departures to date according to tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional records. Key drivers include recent retirements by members such as Raúl Grijalva, Jan Schakowsky, and others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside Nancy Pelosi’s exit, amid a broader wave of 59 total incumbents stepping aside. Primary factors positioning these buckets as leaders are the pace of additional announcements before state filing deadlines, historical patterns of late-cycle retirements in the minority party, and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shocks that typically accelerate exits. The distribution leaves room for modest upward movement if several more Democrats opt out, while downward shifts remain limited absent reversals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$34,931Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early August 2026, trader consensus centers on the 20–23 and 24–27 ranges for Democratic House members not seeking re-election, reflecting 23 announced departures to date according to tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional records. Key drivers include recent retirements by members such as Raúl Grijalva, Jan Schakowsky, and others shifting to Senate or gubernatorial bids, alongside Nancy Pelosi’s exit, amid a broader wave of 59 total incumbents stepping aside. Primary factors positioning these buckets as leaders are the pace of additional announcements before state filing deadlines, historical patterns of late-cycle retirements in the minority party, and the absence of major scandals or redistricting shocks that typically accelerate exits. The distribution leaves room for modest upward movement if several more Democrats opt out, while downward shifts remain limited absent reversals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il numero di membri repubblicani della Camera che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà compreso tra 36 e 39 inclusi?
84%
Sì
Il numero di senatori repubblicani che si ritireranno nel 2026 sarà esattamente 7?
72%
Sì
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
28%
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