**Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.8% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it by 8 points in 2024—and lopsided early voting turnout, with Democrats comprising 61% of the 58,000 mail and early ballots cast ahead of today's April 16 contest to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill.** As the progressive victor of February's crowded Democratic primary, Mejia benefits from strong party-line mobilization in this suburban battleground spanning Essex, Morris, and Union counties, where low-turnout special elections historically favor the incumbent party's nominee. Republican Joe Hathaway and independent Alan Bond trail amid weak GOP early participation at 25%. While an unforeseen Republican surge on Election Day or disqualifying scandal could shift odds, certification of results typically follows vote canvassing within days, barring legal challenges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnalilia Mejia 99.8%
Joe Hathaway <1%
Alan Bond <1%
$43,368 Vol.
$43,368 Vol.
Analilia Mejia
100%
Joe Hathaway
<1%
Alan Bond
<1%
Analilia Mejia 99.8%
Joe Hathaway <1%
Alan Bond <1%
$43,368 Vol.
$43,368 Vol.
Analilia Mejia
100%
Joe Hathaway
<1%
Alan Bond
<1%
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Mercato aperto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Analilia Mejia's commanding 99.8% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean—Kamala Harris carried it by 8 points in 2024—and lopsided early voting turnout, with Democrats comprising 61% of the 58,000 mail and early ballots cast ahead of today's April 16 contest to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill.** As the progressive victor of February's crowded Democratic primary, Mejia benefits from strong party-line mobilization in this suburban battleground spanning Essex, Morris, and Union counties, where low-turnout special elections historically favor the incumbent party's nominee. Republican Joe Hathaway and independent Alan Bond trail amid weak GOP early participation at 25%. While an unforeseen Republican surge on Election Day or disqualifying scandal could shift odds, certification of results typically follows vote canvassing within days, barring legal challenges.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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