Virginia traders price an 89.5% implied probability on the new congressional map—approved by the Democratic-majority General Assembly in February 2026—being used for November midterms, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1 million ballots as of mid-April, with reports of a Democratic edge in Northern Virginia suburbs and among primary participants. The map takes effect only if voters approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election ballot, following a state Supreme Court ruling affirming its placement. Recent polls, including State Navigate (April 10-13: 51% Yes, 45% No) and Washington Post (52% Yes, 47% No), show a slim lead amid high participation rivaling 2025 gubernatorial levels, though Election Day voting and independent turnout could tip the closely contested outcome before the Virginia Redistricting Commission redraws districts in 2031.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia traders price an 89.5% implied probability on the new congressional map—approved by the Democratic-majority General Assembly in February 2026—being used for November midterms, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1 million ballots as of mid-April, with reports of a Democratic edge in Northern Virginia suburbs and among primary participants. The map takes effect only if voters approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election ballot, following a state Supreme Court ruling affirming its placement. Recent polls, including State Navigate (April 10-13: 51% Yes, 45% No) and Washington Post (52% Yes, 47% No), show a slim lead amid high participation rivaling 2025 gubernatorial levels, though Election Day voting and independent turnout could tip the closely contested outcome before the Virginia Redistricting Commission redraws districts in 2031.
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ET
Volume
$458Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.Virginia traders price an 89.5% implied probability on the new congressional map—approved by the Democratic-majority General Assembly in February 2026—being used for November midterms, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1 million ballots as of mid-April, with reports of a Democratic edge in Northern Virginia suburbs and among primary participants. The map takes effect only if voters approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election ballot, following a state Supreme Court ruling affirming its placement. Recent polls, including State Navigate (April 10-13: 51% Yes, 45% No) and Washington Post (52% Yes, 47% No), show a slim lead amid high participation rivaling 2025 gubernatorial levels, though Election Day voting and independent turnout could tip the closely contested outcome before the Virginia Redistricting Commission redraws districts in 2031.
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$458Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 3, 2026, 2:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Virginia traders price an 89.5% implied probability on the new congressional map—approved by the Democratic-majority General Assembly in February 2026—being used for November midterms, driven by robust early voting turnout exceeding 1 million ballots as of mid-April, with reports of a Democratic edge in Northern Virginia suburbs and among primary participants. The map takes effect only if voters approve a constitutional amendment on the April 21 special election ballot, following a state Supreme Court ruling affirming its placement. Recent polls, including State Navigate (April 10-13: 51% Yes, 45% No) and Washington Post (52% Yes, 47% No), show a slim lead amid high participation rivaling 2025 gubernatorial levels, though Election Day voting and independent turnout could tip the closely contested outcome before the Virginia Redistricting Commission redraws districts in 2031.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti