Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's sky-high approval ratings as America's most popular governor, bolstered by his 2024 landslide 52-point reelection victory across every Vermont city and town, drive trader consensus toward a 76.5% implied probability of a Republican win on November 3, 2026. Despite the state's deep Democratic lean, Scott's moderate appeal and cross-party support have sustained dominance in this two-year-term race, with no term limits constraining his bid. Recent Democratic primary entrants—Amanda Janoo on March 10 and Aly Richards on April 6—signal an emerging challenge but face a fragmented field ahead of the May 28 filing deadline and August primaries. Absent polls, historical incumbency advantages and Scott's consistent outperformance anchor the GOP favoritism, though his formal announcement remains pending.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$18,228 Vol.
$18,228 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
77%
Democratico
18%
$18,228 Vol.
$18,228 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano
$10,938 Vol.
77%
Democratico
$7,290 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's sky-high approval ratings as America's most popular governor, bolstered by his 2024 landslide 52-point reelection victory across every Vermont city and town, drive trader consensus toward a 76.5% implied probability of a Republican win on November 3, 2026. Despite the state's deep Democratic lean, Scott's moderate appeal and cross-party support have sustained dominance in this two-year-term race, with no term limits constraining his bid. Recent Democratic primary entrants—Amanda Janoo on March 10 and Aly Richards on April 6—signal an emerging challenge but face a fragmented field ahead of the May 28 filing deadline and August primaries. Absent polls, historical incumbency advantages and Scott's consistent outperformance anchor the GOP favoritism, though his formal announcement remains pending.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$18,228Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's sky-high approval ratings as America's most popular governor, bolstered by his 2024 landslide 52-point reelection victory across every Vermont city and town, drive trader consensus toward a 76.5% implied probability of a Republican win on November 3, 2026. Despite the state's deep Democratic lean, Scott's moderate appeal and cross-party support have sustained dominance in this two-year-term race, with no term limits constraining his bid. Recent Democratic primary entrants—Amanda Janoo on March 10 and Aly Richards on April 6—signal an emerging challenge but face a fragmented field ahead of the May 28 filing deadline and August primaries. Absent polls, historical incumbency advantages and Scott's consistent outperformance anchor the GOP favoritism, though his formal announcement remains pending.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$18,228Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's sky-high approval ratings as America's most popular governor, bolstered by his 2024 landslide 52-point reelection victory across every Vermont city and town, drive trader consensus toward a 76.5% implied probability of a Republican win on November 3, 2026. Despite the state's deep Democratic lean, Scott's moderate appeal and cross-party support have sustained dominance in this two-year-term race, with no term limits constraining his bid. Recent Democratic primary entrants—Amanda Janoo on March 10 and Aly Richards on April 6—signal an emerging challenge but face a fragmented field ahead of the May 28 filing deadline and August primaries. Absent polls, historical incumbency advantages and Scott's consistent outperformance anchor the GOP favoritism, though his formal announcement remains pending.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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