Recent polling averages and forecasts show tight margins under 5 points in several 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Maine, and Ohio, where Democratic and Republican candidates compete in toss-up environments. Open seats, such as those in Iowa and Ohio specials, combined with national generic ballot trends and state-specific factors like voter turnout in battlegrounds, sustain the competitive balance reflected in trader consensus. Late-cycle developments including additional surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in the broader political climate could widen or narrow these gaps ahead of the November 3 election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTexas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 Vol.
$39,746 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Nebraska
10%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
North Carolina
5%
New Hampshire
4%
Florida (Special)
2%
Virginia
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 Vol.
$39,746 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,876 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$3,287 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$2,998 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Vol.
11%
Nebraska
$1,564 Vol.
10%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Vol.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Vol.
9%
North Carolina
$871 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$788 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 Vol.
1%
Montana
$1,383 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecasts show tight margins under 5 points in several 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Maine, and Ohio, where Democratic and Republican candidates compete in toss-up environments. Open seats, such as those in Iowa and Ohio specials, combined with national generic ballot trends and state-specific factors like voter turnout in battlegrounds, sustain the competitive balance reflected in trader consensus. Late-cycle developments including additional surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in the broader political climate could widen or narrow these gaps ahead of the November 3 election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$39,746Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecasts show tight margins under 5 points in several 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Maine, and Ohio, where Democratic and Republican candidates compete in toss-up environments. Open seats, such as those in Iowa and Ohio specials, combined with national generic ballot trends and state-specific factors like voter turnout in battlegrounds, sustain the competitive balance reflected in trader consensus. Late-cycle developments including additional surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in the broader political climate could widen or narrow these gaps ahead of the November 3 election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$39,746Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages and forecasts show tight margins under 5 points in several 2026 Senate contests, including Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Maine, and Ohio, where Democratic and Republican candidates compete in toss-up environments. Open seats, such as those in Iowa and Ohio specials, combined with national generic ballot trends and state-specific factors like voter turnout in battlegrounds, sustain the competitive balance reflected in trader consensus. Late-cycle developments including additional surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in the broader political climate could widen or narrow these gaps ahead of the November 3 election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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