Trader consensus on the closest 2026 governor's race centers on open-seat contests in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio, where recent primaries and polling averages show margins often under 5 points. Term limits have removed incumbents in several battlegrounds, exposing races to national midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and local factors such as agriculture policy in Iowa or affordability in Nevada. Forecasters rate multiple states as toss-ups or leans, with Georgia's Jackson-Bottoms matchup and Nevada's Lombardo-Ford contest exemplifying the narrow positioning. This spread of probabilities across the top five outcomes reflects ongoing uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts, as no single state has pulled decisively ahead in the final weeks before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTexas 16.2%
Ohio 13.7%
Alaska 12.8%
Georgia 11.5%
$18,553 Vol.
$18,553 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
16%
Ohio
14%
Alaska
13%
Georgia
12%
Nevada
11%
Florida
9%
Iowa
7%
Kansas
5%
Oregon
4%
Wisconsin
3%
Colorado
3%
Minnesota
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Vermont
3%
Arizona
2%
New Mexico
2%
Michigan
2%
Maine
<1%
Texas 16.2%
Ohio 13.7%
Alaska 12.8%
Georgia 11.5%
$18,553 Vol.
$18,553 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,824 Vol.
16%
Ohio
$845 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$284 Vol.
13%
Georgia
$1,015 Vol.
12%
Nevada
$3,882 Vol.
11%
Florida
$976 Vol.
9%
Iowa
$1,869 Vol.
7%
Kansas
$3,234 Vol.
5%
Oregon
$346 Vol.
4%
Wisconsin
$1,562 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$273 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$334 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$549 Vol.
3%
Vermont
$201 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$307 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$328 Vol.
2%
Michigan
$349 Vol.
2%
Maine
$375 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 governor's race centers on open-seat contests in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio, where recent primaries and polling averages show margins often under 5 points. Term limits have removed incumbents in several battlegrounds, exposing races to national midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and local factors such as agriculture policy in Iowa or affordability in Nevada. Forecasters rate multiple states as toss-ups or leans, with Georgia's Jackson-Bottoms matchup and Nevada's Lombardo-Ford contest exemplifying the narrow positioning. This spread of probabilities across the top five outcomes reflects ongoing uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts, as no single state has pulled decisively ahead in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$18,553Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 governor's race centers on open-seat contests in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio, where recent primaries and polling averages show margins often under 5 points. Term limits have removed incumbents in several battlegrounds, exposing races to national midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and local factors such as agriculture policy in Iowa or affordability in Nevada. Forecasters rate multiple states as toss-ups or leans, with Georgia's Jackson-Bottoms matchup and Nevada's Lombardo-Ford contest exemplifying the narrow positioning. This spread of probabilities across the top five outcomes reflects ongoing uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts, as no single state has pulled decisively ahead in the final weeks before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,553Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the closest 2026 governor's race centers on open-seat contests in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, and Ohio, where recent primaries and polling averages show margins often under 5 points. Term limits have removed incumbents in several battlegrounds, exposing races to national midterm dynamics, candidate quality, and local factors such as agriculture policy in Iowa or affordability in Nevada. Forecasters rate multiple states as toss-ups or leans, with Georgia's Jackson-Bottoms matchup and Nevada's Lombardo-Ford contest exemplifying the narrow positioning. This spread of probabilities across the top five outcomes reflects ongoing uncertainty over final turnout and late shifts, as no single state has pulled decisively ahead in the final weeks before November 3.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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