Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$62,628 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
84%
Kansas
71%
Alaska
68%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Speciale)
57%
Maine
51%
New Hampshire
65%
Nebraska
49%
South Carolina
40%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Speciale)
25%
Minnesota
20%
Carolina del Nord
13%
Nuovo Messico
12%
Montana
9%
Virginia
4%
Colorado
4%
$62,628 Vol.
Texas
$7,129 Vol.
84%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
71%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
68%
Michigan
$2,735 Vol.
62%
Iowa
$5,645 Vol.
62%
Ohio (Speciale)
$3,936 Vol.
57%
Maine
$1,020 Vol.
51%
New Hampshire
$2,352 Vol.
65%
Nebraska
$3,687 Vol.
49%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
40%
Georgia
$1,394 Vol.
27%
Florida (Speciale)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,715 Vol.
20%
Carolina del Nord
$5,584 Vol.
13%
Nuovo Messico
$6,665 Vol.
12%
Montana
$2,919 Vol.
9%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$62,628Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,628Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Several toss-up and lean Senate contests in 2026 feature polling margins consistently under five points, including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina. Retirements created open seats in Michigan and North Carolina while strong challengers emerged elsewhere, such as Mary Peltola in Alaska and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval amid economic pressures and foreign policy developments has narrowed historical partisan gaps in these battlegrounds. Recent September surveys show single-digit or tied results in the closest races, with voter turnout patterns and final candidate positioning expected to determine outcomes by November 3. Trader consensus on within-5% resolutions reflects these narrow fundamentals and limited polling volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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