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Politica·Congresso

Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?

Market icon
Politica·Congresso

Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?

Sì

28% probabilità
Polymarket

$111,712 Vol.

Sì

28% probabilità
Polymarket

$111,712 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senate Minority Leader emeritus Mitch McConnell affirmed in February 2025 his intention to serve out his full term ending January 3, 2027, despite announcing he would not seek re-election in 2026, shaping trader consensus at 72.5% against early resignation. Recent health episodes, including a February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms and a mid-sentence freeze during a press event questioning his re-election plans, have fueled concerns at age 84, yet he has continued Senate duties, such as voting against the SAVE Act in March. Absent official statements or party pressures for resignation, and with no major developments in the past 30 days signaling departure, traders price low odds of stepping down before term's end, though unforeseen health events could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$111,712
Data di fine
3 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.Senate Minority Leader emeritus Mitch McConnell affirmed in February 2025 his intention to serve out his full term ending January 3, 2027, despite announcing he would not seek re-election in 2026, shaping trader consensus at 72.5% against early resignation. Recent health episodes, including a February 2026 hospitalization for flu-like symptoms and a mid-sentence freeze during a press event questioning his re-election plans, have fueled concerns at age 84, yet he has continued Senate duties, such as voting against the SAVE Act in March. Absent official statements or party pressures for resignation, and with no major developments in the past 30 days signaling departure, traders price low odds of stepping down before term's end, though unforeseen health events could shift sentiment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Volume
$111,713
Data di fine
3 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Oct 17, 2025, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

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Domande frequenti

"Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mitch McConnell si dimetterà dal Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" a 28%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 28¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" ha generato $111.7K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Oct 17, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" è "Mitch McConnell si dimetterà dal Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" a 28%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 28% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Mitch McConnell lascerà il Senato prima della fine del suo mandato?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.