California's 4th congressional district general election features incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson against fellow Democrat Eric Jones after both advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary, where Republicans split votes and the leading GOP candidate received just over 20%. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan lean and recent redistricting. Thompson's long tenure, fundraising edge, and party endorsements reinforce the position. Trader consensus at over 96% for the Democratic Party aligns with the lack of a Republican on the November ballot and the district's voter registration and past results. A shift would require an extraordinary late development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,671 Vol.
$13,671 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$13,671 Vol.
$13,671 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$7,756 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district general election features incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson against fellow Democrat Eric Jones after both advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary, where Republicans split votes and the leading GOP candidate received just over 20%. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan lean and recent redistricting. Thompson's long tenure, fundraising edge, and party endorsements reinforce the position. Trader consensus at over 96% for the Democratic Party aligns with the lack of a Republican on the November ballot and the district's voter registration and past results. A shift would require an extraordinary late development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,671Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district general election features incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson against fellow Democrat Eric Jones after both advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary, where Republicans split votes and the leading GOP candidate received just over 20%. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan lean and recent redistricting. Thompson's long tenure, fundraising edge, and party endorsements reinforce the position. Trader consensus at over 96% for the Democratic Party aligns with the lack of a Republican on the November ballot and the district's voter registration and past results. A shift would require an extraordinary late development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,671Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district general election features incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson against fellow Democrat Eric Jones after both advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary, where Republicans split votes and the leading GOP candidate received just over 20%. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan lean and recent redistricting. Thompson's long tenure, fundraising edge, and party endorsements reinforce the position. Trader consensus at over 96% for the Democratic Party aligns with the lack of a Republican on the November ballot and the district's voter registration and past results. A shift would require an extraordinary late development such as candidate withdrawal or disqualification before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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