Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,897 Vol.
$49,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,897 Vol.
$49,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$25,535 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,362 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$49,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a D+5 partisan voter index by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas around Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer counties, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as an independent. This structural change, combined with the June 2026 top-two primary advancing Democrat Richard Pan against Kiley, has produced trader consensus around 95% implied probability of a Democratic win on November 3. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and limited crossover appeal for an independent challenger in a midterm environment. A narrow general-election polling gap exists in some surveys, yet the underlying partisan math and turnout patterns among Democratic-leaning blocs limit realistic paths for an upset absent major late developments such as scandals or unusually high independent mobilization.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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